NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	10.1 [73]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +114.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	107		Comeback	6.3 [152]		LVP	Mo Williams (POR): -16.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	1.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.1,0.31,0.42,1.14	0.18	0.98	0.02	26	66%	1.25	2	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Norris Cole	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.09	0.13	-0.00	7	79%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.10	0.08	-0.00	5	100%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	6	60%	0.02	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	11	41%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	10	57%	0.04	3	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.18,-0.29,-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.01	20	39%	-0.02	3	-0.09	1	0%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	3	50%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.6	0.60	0.04	0.57	0.01	6	58%	0.62	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.20
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.18	0.05	0.00	14	82%	0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,0.01,-0.07,0.09,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.06	0.01	20	50%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.06
Joel Freeland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.01	10	71%	0.17	3	-0.16	4	75%	-0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.10	-0.02	9	80%	0.15	4	-0.20	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.05	0.00	5	42%	0.02	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	27.7	15.6	25.8	1.6	33.9	130.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +83.0%

POR -63.4%

MIA +0.8%

MIA +30.3%

POR -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.1	14.3	15.1	110.2	109.2	105.2
season	15.6	15.1		109.7	109.6
opponent	14.8	15.8		106.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	14.9	15.3	14.3	15.1
POR	14.7	13.3	15.3	13.9	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	78	78	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.47	14	-13	27	14.9	16.1	-1.29	14.9	11.9	2.97
Mario Chalmers	71	73	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.44	10	-9	19	14.8	16.0	-1.21	14.9	12.5	2.40
Norris Cole	57	55	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.54	3	-2	5	14.6	15.9	-1.34	13.7	15.0	-1.23
Ray Allen	54	54	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.71	-6	7	-13	15.3	14.9	0.47	13.4	15.4	-2.03
Dwyane Wade	70	70	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.47	-3	4	-7	15.3	14.8	0.47	13.9	15.2	-1.28
Shane Battier	32	31	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	-2	5	16.0	14.7	1.30	15.7	13.6	2.16
Michael Beasley	53	54	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.16	4	-3	7	14.8	15.4	-0.60	14.6	13.8	0.81
Rashard Lewis	32	33	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.01	-10	11	-21	15.9	14.7	1.16	14.2	14.3	-0.13
Udonis Haslem	43	42	-0.45	0.95	-1.40	-0.15	-10	11	-21	15.5	14.8	0.69	13.1	15.2	-2.09

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Freeland	30	29	0.21	-0.71	0.92	0.15	2	-3	5	15.0	13.9	1.06	14.9	15.2	-0.32
Dorell Wright	27	29	0.17	-0.67	0.83	-0.04	7	-8	15	13.5	14.6	-1.08	15.9	14.8	1.15
Robin Lopez	66	68	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.08	0	-1	1	14.1	14.7	-0.58	15.3	14.6	0.70
Meyers Leonard	24	24	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.02	3	-4	7	13.6	14.5	-0.90	16.0	14.9	1.11
Mo Williams	54	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.61	11	-12	23	13.7	15.0	-1.29	15.2	15.0	0.14
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	74	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.45	-4	3	-7	14.5	13.6	0.90	14.9	16.0	-1.11
Damian Lillard	73	72	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.54	-2	1	-3	13.9	15.3	-1.42	15.4	14.3	1.06
Nicolas Batum	74	72	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.43	-9	8	-17	14.7	13.0	1.62	14.7	16.2	-1.40
Wesley Matthews	68	68	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.49	-13	12	-25	14.9	12.9	1.92	14.7	16.1	-1.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.44,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.45,0.38,0.56,0.59,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.61,0.55,0.55,0.22,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 103, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.35,0.41,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.76,0.66,0.67,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.28,0	91.9%
CLE 90, NYK 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.64,0.69,0.61,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.6,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.6,0.61,0.36,0.45,0.27,0	90.7%
NOH 106, PHX 100	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.7,0.62,0.75,0.72,0.53,0.47,0.59,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.34,0.17,0	90.3%