NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	3.2 [709]		MVP	Dell Curry (MIL): +10.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	98		Comeback	1.3 [369]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -15.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.06	11	77%	0.05	2	-0.02	17	82%	0.01
Rex Walters	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.03	13	67%	0.06	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.04	7	62%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.18	-0.01	-0.03	10	20%	-0.13	2	-0.03	5	20%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	8	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.12	0.00	0.06	15	74%	0.11	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.03
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.00	0.08	22	63%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	8	39%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.05	3	10%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.00
Haywoode Workman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	2.5	29.2	15.7	27.0	2.3	29.6	128.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.6%

MIL +4.5%

MIL +8.7%

MIL +9.3%

MIL +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	18.5	15.8	104.9	122.5	99.6
season	16.6	15.8		101.3	102.4
opponent	16.4	16.7		100.9	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.4	19.2	14.1	18.1	17.1
MIL	21.7	16.0	18.0	18.9	18.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	15.0	17.3	-2.32	18.6	18.5	0.05
Rex Walters	10	11	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.15	5	-17	22	14.8	17.4	-2.58	18.1	18.6	-0.49
Keith Askins	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.14	3	-15	18	14.8	17.5	-2.74	19.3	18.3	0.94
Clar. Weatherspoon	19	18	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.04	-9	-3	-6	19.4	16.4	3.00	18.6	18.5	0.06
Alonzo Mourning	63	61	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-6	0	17.5	15.7	1.72	18.5	18.5	-0.02
Dan Majerle	57	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-2	-8	16.7	17.9	-1.18	19.0	17.5	1.44
P.J. Brown	36	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.14	-16	4	-20	17.7	16.5	1.18	18.6	18.4	0.23
Tim Hardaway	63	60	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	-3	-6	16.7	18.4	-1.77	18.8	17.5	1.35
Terry Porter	46	45	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-5	-2	16.5	17.7	-1.18	17.7	19.6	-1.93
Jamal Mashburn	67	66	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.03	-16	4	-20	17.3	16.2	1.05	18.5	18.4	0.10

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dell Curry	36	38	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.20	4	8	-4	19.4	17.8	1.54	16.1	17.9	-1.73
Vinny Del Negro	41	42	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.09	7	5	2	18.7	18.3	0.45	16.7	17.4	-0.76
Glenn Robinson	57	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.01	10	2	8	17.9	20.0	-2.03	16.9	17.4	-0.50
Michael Curry	46	48	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	8	-4	19.2	17.6	1.56	18.7	14.8	3.87
Tim Thomas	18	19	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.09	12	0	12	17.0	19.0	-1.95	16.3	17.3	-0.97
Ervin Johnson	46	46	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.04	7	5	2	18.2	19.0	-0.80	16.2	18.2	-1.97
Chris Gatling	30	31	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	2	8	18.2	18.7	-0.45	17.4	16.8	0.58
Haywoode Workman	38	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.03	7	5	2	18.8	18.3	0.48	17.8	16.4	1.35
Robert Traylor	23	24	0.19	0.31	-0.13	-0.02	7	5	2	17.1	19.1	-2.00	17.8	16.7	1.09
Ray Allen	60	60	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.24	-2	14	-16	18.9	17.4	1.42	17.0	17.3	-0.35
Scott Williams	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	18	-24	21.8	18.3	3.51	14.0	17.3	-3.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 85, DET 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.84,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
WAS 84, BOS 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
ORL 80, DAL 102	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%