NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	74		Excitement	3.4 [685]		MVP	Rusty LaRue (CHI): +6.4%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.2 [771]		LVP	Kornel David (CHI): -11.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rusty LaRue	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	0.00	0.05	10	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.00	0.04	12	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corey Benjamin	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Carr	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bill Wennington	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	-0.05	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles R. Jones	-0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dickey Simpkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	4	53%	0.01	3	-0.06	9	56%	0.00
Keith Booth	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.02	0.05	22	48%	-0.06	2	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Kornel David	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.03	9	75%	0.09	4	-0.06	6	83%	0.05
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	12	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	6	50%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	0.02	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	-0.08	12	56%	0.01	6	-0.07	10	70%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.3	27.5	15.7	25.5	1.6	30.4	130.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.4%

MIA +9.3%

MIA +7.0%

CHI -1.8%

MIA +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	16.0	15.8	85.1	103.4	99.6
season	16.7	16.6		90.6	101.3
opponent	16.7	15.4		96.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	19.1	17.3	16.6	15.5	17.1
MIA	16.1	11.5	16.9	20.5	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dickey Simpkins	51	51	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.39	14	-30	44	16.6	17.9	-1.27	16.4	15.4	0.93
Corey Benjamin	1	0	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-14	12	6.0	17.2	-11.24	0.0	16.0	-15.99
Cory Carr	6	5	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.07	-5	-11	6	11.0	17.6	-6.57	8.0	16.5	-8.48
Bill Wennington	25	25	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.22	-12	-4	-8	17.6	16.9	0.68	17.1	15.5	1.59
Ron Harper	66	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.20	1	-17	18	17.2	16.9	0.34	16.1	15.7	0.39
Randy Brown	32	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	-9	2	19.1	15.9	3.18	14.9	16.6	-1.74
Keith Booth	41	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.02	-11	-5	-6	15.8	18.3	-2.52	17.1	15.1	2.07
Rusty LaRue	59	59	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-8	0	15.8	19.9	-4.15	16.1	15.9	0.19
Charles R. Jones	42	43	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	-3	-10	20.0	14.5	5.49	16.2	15.8	0.34
Toni Kukoc	76	77	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.07	-14	-2	-12	16.7	19.9	-3.20	16.0	16.2	-0.24
Kornel David	36	35	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	0.17	-23	7	-30	18.2	16.4	1.79	15.1	16.6	-1.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terry Porter	53	51	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	-2	20	16.3	15.4	0.90	16.5	17.9	-1.37
Clar. Weatherspoon	33	34	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	1	14	17.7	14.9	2.80	18.4	16.3	2.03
P.J. Brown	59	58	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.04	13	3	10	15.3	17.5	-2.28	16.3	18.7	-2.36
Dan Majerle	69	68	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.02	10	6	4	15.2	19.1	-3.87	16.4	19.8	-3.42
Tim Hardaway	60	59	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.04	11	5	6	14.8	18.5	-3.67	17.2	17.0	0.17
Jamal Mashburn	63	63	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.20	1	15	-14	16.6	14.4	2.23	17.7	15.6	2.06
Alonzo Mourning	70	71	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.08	5	11	-6	16.2	14.9	1.30	17.1	17.2	-0.09
Rex Walters	8	10	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.12	9	7	2	12.9	16.3	-3.43	20.1	16.7	3.37
Voshon Lenard	10	11	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	15	-14	24.0	14.9	9.05	17.0	17.1	-0.13
Keith Askins	10	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	19	-22	13.9	16.3	-2.36	18.8	16.9	1.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.86,0.88,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 118, MIL 128	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.74,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.94,0.95,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
IND 83, MIA 118	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
MIL 81, CLE 98	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.75,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%