NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	109		Excitement	5.5 [427]		MVP	Dale Davis (IND): +13.1%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	1.0 [634]		LVP	Kevin Willis (TOR): -15.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dale Davis	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.08	0.03	-0.02	11	68%	0.13	0	0.00	9	78%	0.01
Travis Best	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	-0.01	7	65%	0.12	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Rik Smits	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.01	8	90%	0.18	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Mark Jackson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.01	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sam Perkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.02	10	63%	0.03	0	0.00	7	100%	0.01
Chris Mullin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	11	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	7	42%	-0.04	3	-0.04	5	80%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	11	35%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Derrick McKey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug Christie	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.01	8	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.01	11	41%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	25	49%	0.00	2	-0.05	9	78%	0.03
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	0.04	19	47%	-0.09	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.04
Kevin Willis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.05	-0.03	19	34%	-0.12	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.4	25.5	15.4	21.4	2.5	43.2	134.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +50.5%

IND +9.5%

TOR -19.1%

IND +6.5%

IND +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	TOR	NBA	IND	TOR	NBA
this game	16.3	15.9	15.8	119.8	112.5	99.6
season	16.4	15.6		105.4	99.0
opponent	15.9	16.0		101.2	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.2	20.1	18.4	12.9	16.3
TOR	20.0	16.8	15.0	12.9	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Davis	66	61	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.19	7	3	4	16.2	16.5	-0.28	15.8	15.9	-0.05
Mark Jackson	51	49	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.00	12	-2	14	17.4	15.0	2.40	17.4	13.9	3.51
Reggie Miller	68	65	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	0	10	15.5	18.8	-3.30	15.6	16.5	-0.85
Dale Davis	72	71	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.14	6	4	2	15.4	19.8	-4.39	15.5	17.5	-2.01
Jalen Rose	54	53	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	6	-2	15.7	17.2	-1.42	14.7	17.6	-2.95
Rik Smits	38	40	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	6	-2	16.6	16.1	0.45	16.2	15.6	0.64
Chris Mullin	37	35	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	4	2	17.2	15.7	1.42	17.6	14.7	2.95
Derrick McKey	23	23	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	10	-10	18.8	15.5	3.30	16.5	15.6	0.85
Travis Best	40	39	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.20	-2	12	-14	15.0	17.4	-2.40	13.9	17.4	-3.51
Sam Perkins	6	4	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	7	-4	26.5	15.6	10.90	19.5	15.7	3.82

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wallace	11	12	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.04	1	-11	12	16.5	15.8	0.79	19.9	15.8	4.14
John Thomas	8	10	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-8	6	23.2	15.1	8.14	21.6	15.7	5.93
Alvin Williams	21	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-3	-4	16.9	15.5	1.32	17.3	16.0	1.32
Michael Stewart	24	23	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-7	4	17.0	15.4	1.58	17.6	15.9	1.67
Dee Brown	44	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	-5	0	15.6	16.1	-0.52	15.4	17.2	-1.83
Kevin Willis	65	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	15.9	15.7	0.21	16.8	14.9	1.94
Tracy McGrady	56	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-6	2	15.5	16.5	-1.02	15.2	18.1	-2.87
Doug Christie	69	70	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-4	-2	14.8	19.8	-5.09	15.5	19.0	-3.55
Charles Oakley	71	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.14	-9	-1	-8	15.4	17.7	-2.30	15.3	20.5	-5.21
Vince Carter	71	74	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.14	-9	-1	-8	16.1	14.6	1.49	17.1	13.1	4.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.36,0.24,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, MIN 96	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.23,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.19,0.2,0.32,0.24,0.24,0.26,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.7%
SAS 107, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.22,0.3,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.14,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.17,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	95.5%
HOU 108, ORL 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.17,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.03,0,0	95.1%