NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	96		Excitement	8.5 [100]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (WAS): +45.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	92		Comeback	2.2 [152]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -46.0%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0.46	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.28,0.23,0.23,0.41,0.4,0.46	0.11	0.35	-0.00	22	61%	0.50	1	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00
Otis Thorpe	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	-0.00	9	78%	0.18	2	-0.12	5	80%	-0.01
Tracy Murray	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05	0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terry Davis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	67%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jeff McInnis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	7	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	20%	-0.10
Juwan Howard	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	13	45%	-0.04	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.07
Rod Strickland	-0.46	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.27,-0.33,-0.4,-0.46,-0.46,-0.46	-0.24	-0.25	-0.03	15	28%	-0.28	5	-0.18	6	50%	-0.02

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.01	22	60%	0.27	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.02	8	62%	0.08	4	-0.07	10	80%	0.01
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.07	0.01	6	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	11	41%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	0.00	3	25%	-0.06	2	-0.08	2	0%	-0.05
Billy Owens	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.15	-0.04	-0.12	-0.01	13	52%	0.05	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.04
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	0.00	12	50%	-0.10	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	51.1	1.0	29.2	25.6	30.6	1.8	46.6	185.9
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +55.5%

SEA -8.8%

SEA -16.4%

WAS +17.5%

WAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SEA	NBA	WAS	SEA	NBA
this game	16.4	15.3	15.8	104.3	102.2	99.6
season	15.5	15.4		98.8	102.4
opponent	15.9	15.9		103.5	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.7	15.7	17.5	15.6	16.4
SEA	13.9	16.3	16.0	15.0	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	80	77	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.39	14	-10	24	16.1	18.3	-2.26	14.9	17.2	-2.21
Otis Thorpe	66	65	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.34	8	-4	12	15.8	17.9	-2.17	15.9	13.7	2.14
Juwan Howard	82	79	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	1	2	15.9	20.4	-4.52	15.0	16.9	-1.87
Tracy Murray	22	26	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	-6	16	17.2	16.1	1.13	16.4	14.8	1.63
Mitch Richmond	85	83	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.38	-1	5	-6	16.6	13.9	2.72	15.4	13.1	2.30
Calbert Cheaney	52	50	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	1	2	16.3	16.5	-0.19	13.6	17.4	-3.84
Ben Wallace	41	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	3	-2	17.2	15.7	1.58	15.2	15.3	-0.15
Terry Davis	20	18	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	12	-20	17.0	16.2	0.81	16.6	14.9	1.61
Jeff McInnis	12	13	-0.30	0.80	-1.09	-0.00	-10	14	-24	18.3	16.1	2.26	17.2	14.9	2.21

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	11	12	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-8	12	14.5	15.4	-0.82	21.9	15.5	6.38
Aaron Williams	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.01	-1	-3	2	20.6	14.7	5.88	19.1	16.1	3.00
John Crotty	18	16	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.01	-6	2	-8	16.8	14.9	1.96	16.7	16.3	0.46
Billy Owens	62	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.18	-4	0	-4	15.7	14.3	1.42	16.0	17.3	-1.32
Gary Payton	72	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.39	2	-6	8	14.9	16.8	-1.96	16.3	16.7	-0.46
Hersey Hawkins	76	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.45	2	-6	8	14.9	17.2	-2.31	16.6	14.8	1.86
Dale Ellis	57	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.27	-5	1	-6	15.2	15.5	-0.30	16.1	16.8	-0.67
Detlef Schrempf	82	85	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-1	-2	14.7	20.6	-5.88	16.1	19.1	-3.00
Olden Polynice	64	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.23	-9	5	-14	15.5	14.7	0.75	15.7	18.2	-2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.56,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.24,0.3,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.47,0.36,0.14,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 115, CHA 111	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.72,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.47,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.16,0.01,0	92.8%
PHX 94, DET 91	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.27,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.33,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.43,0.28,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.47,0.36,0.23,0.11,0	92.8%
LAL 92, BKN 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.32,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.38,0.46,0.41,0.47,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.31,0.02,0	92.7%