NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	6.2 [335]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +14.9%
Atlanta Hawks	85		Comeback	1.1 [382]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): -32.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.01	19	57%	0.13	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Blue Edwards	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Terry Porter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	-0.02	9	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	6	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	12	50%	-0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	14	47%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.10	0.01	17	58%	0.17	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.03
Tyrone Corbin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Grant Long	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	6	31%	-0.03	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	13	31%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11	-0.11	0.04	-0.13	0.02	8	60%	-0.11	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Chris Crawford	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	5	8%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Roshown McLeod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	7	14%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,-0.33	-0.33	-0.01	-0.30	0.01	15	50%	-0.28	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	1.7	29.1	16.5	25.2	1.8	32.2	130.0
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.2%

MIA +16.1%

ATL -25.5%

MIA +7.4%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	17.7	18.7	15.8	108.9	107.6	99.6
season	16.6	16.7		101.3	97.2
opponent	16.3	16.7		94.9	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	19.4	17.8	19.6	17.7
ATL	19.0	18.5	21.2	16.4	18.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alonzo Mourning	58	58	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.32	6	-5	11	16.9	20.0	-3.13	18.5	19.2	-0.72
P.J. Brown	54	55	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.39	2	-1	3	17.4	18.6	-1.25	18.8	18.4	0.42
Tim Hardaway	67	67	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.42	1	0	1	17.5	19.2	-1.77	19.2	16.1	3.10
Dan Majerle	69	70	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	1	-1	17.4	20.1	-2.69	19.1	16.0	3.06
Terry Porter	39	37	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	6	-11	19.5	16.0	3.44	17.1	20.1	-2.96
Keith Askins	37	38	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.02	11	-10	21	16.0	19.3	-3.23	20.0	17.5	2.49
Clar. Weatherspoon	38	37	0.06	0.44	-0.39	0.20	-5	6	-11	19.2	16.4	2.82	18.8	18.7	0.09
Mark Strickland	9	9	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	-1	3	16.9	17.9	-0.97	19.1	18.7	0.45
Duane Causwell	8	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	2	-3	19.5	17.5	1.95	19.0	18.7	0.32
Rex Walters	4	4	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	4	-7	24.0	17.4	6.59	13.2	19.0	-5.75
Blue Edwards	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.06	-3	4	-7	19.4	17.4	1.97	16.3	19.1	-2.80

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ed Gray	31	30	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.44	13	-14	27	17.3	19.6	-2.28	19.3	16.8	2.45
Mark West	6	7	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.05	-1	0	-1	15.8	18.9	-3.11	24.0	17.1	6.86
Tyrone Corbin	7	8	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	2	-5	18.1	18.8	-0.62	23.1	17.1	5.98
Roshown McLeod	20	21	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.11	-1	0	-1	17.7	19.1	-1.35	18.1	17.6	0.54
Grant Long	39	39	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.47	11	-12	23	16.9	20.4	-3.48	19.7	15.8	3.89
Anthony Johnson	19	20	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.11	-5	4	-9	16.4	19.4	-3.01	20.0	17.0	3.02
Chris Crawford	30	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	10	-21	21.2	17.2	4.02	15.9	18.8	-2.87
Steven Smith	66	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.41	3	-4	7	18.8	18.5	0.30	16.8	22.1	-5.34
Mookie Blaylock	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-2	3	19.2	16.5	2.69	17.3	19.6	-2.29
Dikembe Mutombo	66	65	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-1	1	18.9	17.8	1.12	16.6	23.2	-6.65
Alan Henderson	47	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.07	-12	11	-23	20.3	16.4	3.87	16.8	19.1	-2.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.29,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 79, SAS 75	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.04,0.11,0.16,0.15,0	93.8%
SEA 104, WAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.11,0.06,0.15,0	93.7%
SAC 96, MEM 92	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.36,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.02,0	93.5%