NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	8.9 [88]		MVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): +31.0%
Detroit Pistons	95		Comeback	4.2 [137]		LVP	P.J. Brown (MIA): -20.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Majerle	0.31	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.18,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31	0.14	0.18	0.01	9	83%	0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	17	60%	0.05	1	-0.03	14	64%	-0.03
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	-0.01	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Blue Edwards	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	62%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.03	-0.08	-0.00	4	62%	0.12	3	-0.23	0	0%	0.00
Terry Porter	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,-0.16	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	10	43%	-0.07	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.01
Clar. Weatherspoon	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18	-0.03	-0.16	-0.00	11	44%	-0.18	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.13
P.J. Brown	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.18	-0.04	-0.01	12	20%	-0.11	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.19,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.09	0.22	0.00	10	79%	0.37	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.09	0.13	-0.00	15	64%	0.25	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.17	0.17	-0.06	0.23	-0.00	10	46%	0.23	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Grant Hill	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.05	0.02	15	61%	0.10	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.04
Corey Beck	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Loy Vaught	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	45%	-0.04	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.0	27.6	16.5	25.5	2.7	44.2	142.2
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +47.4%

MIA -22.0%

MIA -0.8%

DET +18.1%

DET +7.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	17.0	15.8	106.9	111.8	99.6
season	16.6	16.6		101.3	101.4
opponent	16.1	16.7		97.9	96.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.7	16.8	15.5	15.8	16.4
DET	17.4	12.7	18.8	20.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Walters	54	51	0.46	-0.96	1.41	0.02	15	-17	32	17.0	15.6	1.41	18.9	14.2	4.74
Blue Edwards	25	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	2	-6	16.0	16.6	-0.63	18.1	16.6	1.52
P.J. Brown	46	45	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.06	-3	1	-4	17.4	15.4	2.00	15.5	18.8	-3.26
Tim Hardaway	30	30	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.04	-4	2	-6	17.4	15.9	1.45	14.3	18.5	-4.25
Mark Strickland	17	17	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.06	-9	7	-16	17.7	16.1	1.56	13.1	18.0	-4.91
Clar. Weatherspoon	49	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-5	8	16.3	16.6	-0.28	18.4	15.3	3.15
Terry Porter	58	58	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-2	2	15.9	17.6	-1.71	16.7	17.9	-1.23
Dan Majerle	56	54	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.44	0	-2	2	16.3	16.7	-0.36	16.8	17.5	-0.64
Alonzo Mourning	79	77	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	16.0	21.1	-5.15	17.1	16.6	0.47
Keith Askins	21	20	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.51	-4	2	-6	15.1	16.9	-1.72	20.1	16.1	3.99

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bison Dele	46	48	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.54	7	-5	12	17.9	16.0	1.89	16.4	16.5	-0.02
Joe Dumars	59	62	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.38	6	-4	10	16.6	18.2	-1.59	16.3	16.8	-0.49
Jerry Stackhouse	45	48	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.51	1	1	0	18.3	15.7	2.59	16.5	16.4	0.16
Grant Hill	65	68	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.45	3	-1	4	16.6	18.5	-1.90	16.3	16.9	-0.57
Jud Buechler	33	33	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.04	4	-2	6	16.2	17.6	-1.32	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Jerome Williams	33	34	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	5	-8	17.0	17.1	-0.03	16.6	16.4	0.23
Don Reid	40	39	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.05	1	1	0	16.3	17.7	-1.32	16.0	16.8	-0.77
Loy Vaught	17	18	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.04	-1	3	-4	18.9	16.6	2.29	17.2	16.3	0.91
Lindsey Hunter	53	51	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	6	-10	18.0	15.4	2.58	16.7	16.1	0.67
Corey Beck	1	1	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	4	-6	0.0	17.2	-17.25	5.0	16.6	-11.58
Eric Montross	33	33	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.11	-2	4	-6	15.6	18.0	-2.36	17.2	16.0	1.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 100, BOS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.67,0.73,1	91.4%
LAL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.83,0.79,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.54,0.55,0.28,0.32,0.73,1	91.4%
NOH 91, MIL 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.69,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.46,0.78,0.72,1	91.3%