NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	9.1 [129]		MVP	Jared Sullinger (BOS): +24.8%
Boston Celtics	104		Comeback	1.8 [569]		LVP	Marcus Smart (BOS): -21.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.13	0.11	0.01	8	81%	0.24	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.02
Alonzo Gee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	2	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jusuf Nurkic	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	70%	0.08	2	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
JJ Hickson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Erick Green	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	0.06	-0.10	-0.00	15	68%	0.20	4	-0.24	4	100%	0.02
Danilo Gallinari	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.12,-0.18,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.1	-0.13	0.02	0.00	9	29%	-0.02	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.07
Darrell Arthur	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	0.01	-0.11	0.01	17	47%	-0.10	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	8	40%	-0.00	2	-0.14	4	100%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.25	0.25	0.03	0.20	-0.02	12	50%	0.25	0	0.00	4	50%	0.06
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	9	81%	0.18	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	12	54%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.06	0.01	12	52%	0.11	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Phil Pressey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	13	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
James Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.00	9	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	15	53%	0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Evan Turner	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.02	11	32%	-0.07	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21	-0.21	-0.08	-0.12	0.01	6	29%	-0.15	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.3	28.6	15.7	26.2	2.5	36.6	134.2
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +19.9%

DEN -18.5%

BOS +22.1%

BOS +24.8%

BOS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	14.0	15.2	15.1	102.0	105.1	104.2
season	14.6	14.3		103.4	103.1
opponent	15.4	15.3		103.3	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	12.1	15.5	12.2	16.7	14.0
BOS	14.6	13.9	17.8	14.6	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	43	45	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.09	1	-5	6	13.3	14.6	-1.26	15.3	15.1	0.16
Kenneth Faried	64	67	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.44	11	-15	26	14.7	12.8	1.94	15.0	15.7	-0.76
Danilo Gallinari	50	50	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.08	-2	-2	0	14.5	13.6	0.88	15.5	14.9	0.60
Gary Harris	11	11	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.06	-7	3	-10	16.1	13.8	2.32	15.5	15.2	0.39
JJ Hickson	15	14	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.09	-10	6	-16	14.6	13.9	0.67	14.2	15.4	-1.15
Erick Green	10	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.01	-8	4	-12	14.7	14.0	0.75	13.0	15.4	-2.45
Ty Lawson	88	89	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.37	4	-8	12	14.0	14.7	-0.75	15.4	13.0	2.45
Alonzo Gee	21	18	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.29	1	-5	6	14.0	14.1	-0.10	17.8	14.6	3.22
Wilson Chandler	74	75	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.42	4	-8	12	14.3	13.1	1.20	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Arron Afflalo	74	77	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.36	1	-5	6	13.6	15.4	-1.78	15.1	15.6	-0.50
Darrell Arthur	40	39	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.01	-15	11	-26	12.7	14.9	-2.25	14.6	15.6	-0.93

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	85	84	0.70	-0.20	0.89	0.40	10	-6	16	14.9	17.0	-2.09	14.4	12.0	2.37
Jared Sullinger	40	42	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.12	11	-7	18	15.6	14.9	0.71	15.4	13.0	2.45
James Young	39	40	0.40	0.10	0.29	-0.01	14	-10	24	15.3	15.2	0.09	15.0	13.3	1.68
Brandon Bass	49	47	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.46	-3	7	-10	14.7	15.7	-0.97	13.7	14.4	-0.71
Evan Turner	64	62	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.47	-6	10	-16	15.0	15.6	-0.62	13.8	14.5	-0.70
Marcus Thornton	40	42	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.03	9	-5	14	15.9	14.7	1.26	13.6	14.4	-0.80
Jae Crowder	54	54	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	0	4	15.1	15.3	-0.24	13.7	14.5	-0.81
Avery Bradley	68	65	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.39	-10	14	-24	15.2	15.2	-0.03	13.8	14.4	-0.55
Tyler Zeller	56	54	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	13	-22	15.6	14.7	0.85	13.2	15.0	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.6,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.67,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 93, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.58,1	91.4%
CHI 78, NYK 85	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.77,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.83,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.77,0.96,1	91.3%
NJN 107, PHI 108	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.59,0.69,0.81,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.74,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.78,0.76,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	91.2%