NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	91		Excitement	8.1 [268]		MVP	Michael Redd (MIL): +37.1%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	3.9 [510]		LVP	Lee Nailon (NOH): -26.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0.32	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.19,0.32	0.10	0.21	-0.00	17	62%	0.34	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	0.00	3	100%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Garcia	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	5	70%	0.12	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	10	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	9	44%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.01	10	55%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jamaal Magloire	-0.25	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25	-0.12	-0.14	-0.01	16	37%	-0.15	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Lee Nailon	-0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.27	-0.14	-0.15	-0.02	12	28%	-0.18	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Redd	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.29,0.37	0.37	0.14	0.21	-0.02	22	64%	0.40	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.01	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.00	11	61%	0.08	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	-0.00	2	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Desmond Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	-0.01	11	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	8	87%	0.05
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Santiago	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mo Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	11	18%	-0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	22.6	16.3	22.6	2.4	35.6	126.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOH -1.1%

MIL +21.8%

NOH -0.4%

MIL +26.5%

MIL +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	MIL	NBA	NOH	MIL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.5	15.5	102.2	104.4	104.0
season	16.5	16.0		97.7	104.4
opponent	15.0	15.7		107.4	105.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	14.6	17.8	17.9	16.6	16.7
MIL	16.7	16.5	14.2	14.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Andersen	32	31	0.38	-0.88	1.26	0.29	3	-6	9	16.6	16.8	-0.16	18.5	13.9	4.62
Alex Garcia	34	33	0.36	-0.86	1.22	0.12	8	-11	19	14.8	17.9	-3.08	18.2	13.9	4.30
Lee Nailon	36	36	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.28	5	-8	13	16.2	17.1	-0.89	16.2	15.0	1.18
J.R. Smith	10	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	0.07	-8	5	-13	17.1	16.6	0.45	19.1	15.1	4.02
P.J. Brown	59	61	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.22	1	-4	5	16.1	17.9	-1.87	14.5	17.5	-2.94
George Lynch	51	53	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	-0.08	-9	6	-15	17.5	15.6	1.95	15.3	15.8	-0.50
David West	33	32	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.26	-3	0	-3	16.8	16.7	0.10	15.9	15.2	0.70
Darrell Armstrong	67	69	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-3	3	17.2	15.0	2.19	14.3	19.2	-4.89
David Wesley	69	70	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.66	-5	2	-7	16.7	16.6	0.06	14.7	18.4	-3.74
Jamaal Magloire	54	56	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.63	-7	4	-11	17.4	15.6	1.81	14.6	17.0	-2.38

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mo Williams	45	46	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.57	10	-7	17	13.6	17.4	-3.82	17.7	15.6	2.16
Joe Smith	65	65	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.54	6	-3	9	15.5	15.5	-0.04	16.2	17.9	-1.67
Michael Redd	83	81	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	-2	7	15.1	20.0	-4.89	16.5	18.2	-1.71
Keith Van Horn	73	73	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.48	4	-1	5	14.8	18.6	-3.82	17.1	14.7	2.37
Desmond Mason	57	58	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.29	7	-4	11	16.1	14.4	1.78	16.5	17.1	-0.56
Dan Gadzuric	19	19	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	4	-5	14.9	15.6	-0.75	18.9	16.1	2.79
Daniel Santiago	39	36	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	8	-13	15.5	15.5	-0.05	15.6	17.4	-1.82
Toni Kukoc	21	21	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.18	-2	5	-7	18.2	14.7	3.52	17.0	16.6	0.40
Erick Strickland	48	46	-0.45	0.95	-1.41	-0.19	-9	12	-21	17.4	13.4	4.00	15.9	17.5	-1.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.64,0.69,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.89,0.87,0.81,0.7,0.62,0.67,0.53,0.53,0.34,0.38,0.25,0.46,0.78,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 99, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.72,0.78,0.92,1	91.6%
CHA 92, PHI 95	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.5,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.55,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.77,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.65,0.78,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.53,0.31,0.46,0.33,0.38,0.54,0.67,0.73,1	91.5%
MIA 93, DET 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.61,0.74,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.78,0.78,0.77,0.8,0.82,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.64,0.59,0.47,0.25,0.28,0.57,0.58,1	91.3%