NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	92		Excitement	2.4 [765]		MVP	Charles Oakley (TOR): +9.4%
Toronto Raptors	102		Comeback	1.0 [293]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): -6.7%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Mitchell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	12	60%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Bill Curley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.08	0.00	-0.07	9	46%	0.02	2	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Anthony Peeler	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	13	58%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrae Patterson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	10	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	4	62%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	3	0%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Chris Carr	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephon Marbury	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	20	39%	-0.04	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.14	0.00	-0.07	15	35%	-0.05	3	-0.02	4	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.00	-0.00	10	82%	0.11	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	9	67%	0.04	2	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	14	60%	0.06	4	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Reggie Slater	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.00	-0.09	11	32%	0.01	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	4	67%	0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.12	0.00	-0.10	12	46%	0.01	5	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	11	50%	0.00	3	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	29.3	16.2	25.2	2.4	36.5	135.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +46.3%

MIN -1.1%

TOR +4.6%

MIN -2.8%

TOR +3.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	TOR	NBA	MIN	TOR	NBA
this game	14.5	13.6	15.8	89.3	100.0	99.6
season	15.0	15.6		98.6	99.0
opponent	15.9	15.9		101.2	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	16.3	14.1	15.0	12.3	14.5
TOR	12.5	13.0	13.2	15.8	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bill Curley	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-11	12	11.0	14.5	-3.52	6.5	13.8	-7.28
Andrae Patterson	38	37	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.50	17	-27	44	13.0	15.3	-2.31	14.9	12.9	1.97
Tom Hammonds	8	7	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.08	2	-12	14	15.1	14.4	0.72	11.6	13.8	-2.22
Bobby Jackson	32	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.04	-3	-7	4	14.3	14.5	-0.21	13.0	13.9	-0.92
Chris Carr	23	22	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.04	-6	-4	-2	13.9	14.6	-0.70	13.5	13.7	-0.18
Sam Mitchell	44	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.07	-3	-7	4	14.1	14.7	-0.56	13.8	13.5	0.21
Malik Sealy	39	37	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-3	-4	14.6	14.3	0.30	13.4	13.8	-0.45
Anthony Peeler	70	71	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.30	0	-10	10	14.5	14.4	0.09	13.8	13.2	0.64
Dean Garrett	40	40	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.21	-19	9	-28	16.1	13.4	2.69	12.6	14.3	-1.67
Stephon Marbury	71	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-3	-4	14.5	14.3	0.21	13.9	13.0	0.92
Joe Smith	66	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	1	-12	14.5	14.3	0.25	13.7	13.4	0.30
Kevin Garnett	82	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.05	-14	4	-18	14.5	14.3	0.15	13.8	13.1	0.62

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Willis	66	64	0.47	0.03	0.45	-0.08	19	-9	28	13.2	14.5	-1.29	15.6	12.5	3.09
Vince Carter	74	75	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.24	23	-13	36	13.4	14.1	-0.70	15.3	12.3	2.98
Charles Oakley	77	78	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.14	19	-9	28	13.9	12.8	1.16	14.8	13.5	1.24
Doug Christie	75	77	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	6	-2	13.1	15.3	-2.21	14.5	14.4	0.10
Alvin Williams	58	58	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.05	10	0	10	13.1	14.4	-1.28	15.3	13.4	1.88
Dee Brown	50	51	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.31	-5	15	-20	14.5	12.8	1.65	12.6	16.2	-3.58
Tracy McGrady	49	50	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.21	-2	12	-14	14.6	12.7	1.88	13.6	15.2	-1.59
John Wallace	47	47	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.36	-9	19	-28	13.7	13.5	0.20	13.3	15.4	-2.13
Michael Stewart	11	11	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.15	-4	14	-18	15.7	13.4	2.34	13.1	14.6	-1.53
Reggie Slater	3	4	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.12	-5	15	-20	7.0	13.8	-6.84	13.0	14.5	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.95,0.97,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 96, OKC 116	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
POR 89, MIN 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.71,0.66,0.73,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.83,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.89,0.92,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	97.6%
ORL 81, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.5%