NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	113		Excitement	11.5 [11]		MVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): +39.5%
Charlotte Hornets	107		Comeback	13.1 [44]		LVP	Derrick Coleman (CHH): -37.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glenn Robinson	0.39	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.39	0.05	0.34	-0.00	21	56%	0.44	1	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.30	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.3,0.3	0.10	0.22	0.01	13	74%	0.36	2	-0.06	8	75%	0.02
Dell Curry	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.11	0.11	-0.00	13	65%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.07	0.00	9	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	10	90%	0.09
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Traylor	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	3	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Vinny Del Negro	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.14,-0.21,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.11,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	19	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	0.03
Tyrone Hill	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	7	22%	-0.14	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Phills	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	-0.06	0.32	-0.01	13	51%	0.45	3	-0.18	9	89%	0.05
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.21,0.11,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	13	59%	0.14	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.03
Charles Shackleford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	3	87%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.29,0.13,0.13,0.2,0.2,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.00	9	75%	0.40	4	-0.35	2	50%	-0.01
J.R. Reid	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	81%	0.12	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	5	64%	0.06	2	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Chuck Person	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	7	58%	0.00	2	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Derrick Coleman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.36,-0.38,-0.38	-0.38	-0.15	-0.24	-0.00	13	52%	-0.04	7	-0.34	7	43%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	2.5	30.8	14.8	30.3	2.5	37.4	1.8	12.4	158.3
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	1.7	18.8	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH -45.9%

MIL +14.6%

CHH -11.6%

MIL +99.2%

CHH -6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	CHH	NBA	MIL	CHH	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	15.8	110.8	101.9	99.6
season	15.8	15.7		102.4	99.2
opponent	15.5	16.4		99.4	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	16.2	14.0	16.9	16.3	10.9	15.3
CHH	13.8	13.7	15.1	20.1	15.7	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dell Curry	42	43	1.30	-0.80	2.09	0.74	19	-13	32	15.8	14.9	0.85	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Ray Allen	81	82	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.46	2	4	-2	14.7	17.4	-2.72	15.3	15.9	-0.58
Terrell Brandon	76	77	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.47	1	5	-4	14.7	16.8	-2.07	15.7	14.9	0.82
Glenn Robinson	81	81	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.31	6	0	6	15.0	16.3	-1.29	16.7	11.3	5.40
Tyrone Hill	46	47	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.04	10	-4	14	15.8	14.8	0.94	16.8	14.4	2.37
Ervin Johnson	30	31	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.02	7	-1	8	14.8	15.5	-0.66	15.6	15.4	0.27
Vinny Del Negro	34	36	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.17	7	-1	8	15.6	15.1	0.49	13.9	16.2	-2.30
Armen Gilliam	59	62	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.29	-9	15	-24	15.3	15.3	-0.02	15.3	15.7	-0.45
Robert Traylor	16	18	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	0.06	-8	14	-22	17.2	14.9	2.28	12.4	16.1	-3.70
Michael Curry	45	48	-0.63	1.13	-1.76	-0.48	-5	11	-16	16.0	14.6	1.40	14.5	16.2	-1.72

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chuck Person	55	57	0.87	-1.37	2.24	0.52	12	-18	30	15.4	15.5	-0.08	15.5	14.9	0.63
Charles Shackleford	28	27	0.21	-0.71	0.93	-0.05	9	-15	24	13.9	16.0	-2.08	16.7	14.7	2.01
Ricky Davis	10	9	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.05	5	-11	16	15.7	15.4	0.27	17.1	15.1	2.03
Travis Williams	8	9	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-5	4	14.9	15.5	-0.63	12.8	15.5	-2.73
Joe Wolf	1	1	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	-4	2	4.0	15.6	-11.57	23.0	15.2	7.81
Bobby Phills	73	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.13	-8	2	-10	16.4	13.4	2.99	14.8	16.6	-1.85
B.J. Armstrong	83	79	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.37	4	-10	14	15.2	16.5	-1.38	15.2	15.6	-0.44
Eldridge Recasner	19	19	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-3	0	12.6	16.1	-3.45	17.0	14.9	2.13
Derrick Coleman	82	80	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.36	-8	2	-10	15.7	14.4	1.31	15.0	16.4	-1.40
David Wesley	72	69	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.24	-13	7	-20	16.3	13.7	2.61	14.5	16.9	-2.43
Chucky Brown	29	24	-0.69	0.19	-0.89	-0.43	-9	3	-12	16.0	15.2	0.75	16.9	14.8	2.16
J.R. Reid	65	62	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.37	-16	10	-26	15.0	16.2	-1.16	15.2	15.4	-0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.64,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.49,0.6,0.54,0.45,0.38,0.33,0.58,0.5,0.31,0.55,0.57,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 104, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.58,0.66,0.61,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.37,0.53,0.65,0.6,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.22,0.04,0	89.5%
DEN 114, MIA 113	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.72,0.66,0.52,0.44,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.67,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.27,0.25,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.57,0.16,0	89.0%
NYK 118, MIL 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.68,0.62,0.56,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.32,0.31,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.24,0,0	88.8%