NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	95		Excitement	5.5 [675]		MVP	Tracy Murray (WAS): +8.6%
Washington Wizards	112		Comeback	2.0 [699]		LVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): -10.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Mercer	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	13	60%	0.09	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Greg Minor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.05	8	42%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.04
Reggie Hanson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dana Barros	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	10	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	14	45%	-0.02	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Zan Tabak	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	6	56%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Travis Knight	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dontae' Jones	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	56%	-0.01	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Antoine Walker	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	18	46%	-0.06	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.05	0.06	10	75%	0.12	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Chris Webber	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	18	57%	0.08	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.03
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
God Shammgod	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.02	0.04	3	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	13	56%	0.05	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	4	46%	0.00	0	0.00	5	0%	-0.05
Terry Davis	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	16	53%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.01	8	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.6	25.3	14.8	31.1	1.6	30.2	127.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +48.2%

WAS +3.0%

BOS -11.2%

WAS +4.3%

WAS +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	WAS	NBA	BOS	WAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.6	15.6	102.2	121.7	102.5
season	15.1	15.1		100.2	102.8
opponent	15.6	15.1		102.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.4	16.4	14.9	14.5	15.6
WAS	14.2	15.6	14.5	18.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zan Tabak	36	38	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-19	21	14.8	16.1	-1.29	15.9	15.3	0.56
Reggie Hanson	6	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-18	19	9.5	16.0	-6.49	17.6	15.4	2.15
Dana Barros	59	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-12	7	16.0	14.8	1.18	15.9	15.0	0.88
Antoine Walker	78	77	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-10	3	15.6	15.6	-0.04	16.0	13.5	2.51
Andrew DeClercq	32	32	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.02	-6	-11	5	16.4	15.1	1.32	13.9	16.4	-2.50
Walter McCarty	77	76	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-10	3	15.8	14.3	1.52	15.9	14.0	1.89
Dontae' Jones	4	4	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.07	-6	-11	5	15.5	15.6	-0.07	12.2	15.7	-3.47
Ron Mercer	61	63	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	-2	-13	15.8	15.1	0.68	15.4	15.8	-0.38
Tyus Edney	35	34	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.01	-12	-5	-7	14.9	16.0	-1.05	14.6	16.2	-1.60
Greg Minor	53	50	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.05	-14	-3	-11	15.3	15.9	-0.54	16.0	15.1	0.86
Travis Knight	24	22	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.00	-16	-1	-15	16.1	15.4	0.75	15.1	15.7	-0.62

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	81	80	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.05	20	-3	23	15.9	13.4	2.50	16.0	12.7	3.35
Chris Webber	84	86	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.02	18	-1	19	15.6	15.2	0.35	15.9	11.6	4.32
Darvin Ham	23	25	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	4	9	13.6	16.2	-2.61	15.0	15.8	-0.78
Chris Whitney	73	73	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.06	17	0	17	15.6	15.3	0.38	15.8	14.8	0.92
Tracy Murray	43	44	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	3	11	16.3	14.9	1.43	15.7	15.4	0.26
Calbert Cheaney	64	65	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.16	9	8	1	15.4	16.0	-0.57	15.5	15.8	-0.31
God Shammgod	23	24	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.02	1	16	-15	15.3	15.7	-0.35	13.7	16.2	-2.45
Juwan Howard	65	63	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	19	-21	15.5	15.8	-0.30	15.8	15.1	0.69
Terry Davis	4	5	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	-0.02	-5	22	-27	16.2	15.5	0.72	8.4	16.0	-7.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.59,0.61,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.62,0.75,0.85,0.82,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 93, CLE 102	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.76,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.61,0.75,0.78,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
NJN 76, DET 97	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
MIL 80, ATL 98	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.2%