NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	5.6 [662]		MVP	Mark Price (ORL): +7.9%
Miami Heat	87		Comeback	1.4 [137]		LVP	Mark Strickland (MIA): -9.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Price	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.03	-0.04	8	71%	0.13	3	-0.06	5	60%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Horace Grant	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.03	9	71%	0.06	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.02
Derek Strong	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	11	58%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.02
Johnny Taylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	5	67%	0.05	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Nick Anderson	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	19	50%	-0.00	3	-0.04	10	70%	-0.02
Dan Schayes	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	4	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	0.01
Derek Harper	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	67%	0.11	2	-0.08	7	86%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	18	52%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.05
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.03	0.04	11	64%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.00	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	-0.05	7	44%	0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	1.7	27.4	15.4	30.6	2.4	27.3	129.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +5.7%

ORL +12.4%

ORL +7.1%

ORL +21.9%

ORL +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.2	14.6	15.6	110.0	95.6	102.5
season	16.7	15.8		100.3	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.6		99.8	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	19.4	14.9	15.3	20.1	17.2
MIA	14.2	16.4	11.9	16.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	72	73	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.13	13	-1	14	17.9	14.3	3.60	14.5	15.1	-0.60
Bo Outlaw	65	66	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.34	3	9	-6	18.2	14.6	3.56	13.9	16.4	-2.50
Johnny Taylor	39	40	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	4	4	13.7	19.9	-6.25	15.7	13.8	1.92
Gerald Wilkins	30	30	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.09	7	5	2	13.6	19.0	-5.37	16.7	13.6	3.14
Mark Price	43	42	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.07	7	5	2	17.3	17.1	0.13	16.6	12.9	3.66
Derek Harper	51	53	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.03	9	3	6	16.9	17.6	-0.71	13.0	16.9	-3.85
Nick Anderson	60	61	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.06	5	7	-2	19.0	13.6	5.37	13.6	16.7	-3.14
Dan Schayes	39	40	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	8	-4	17.0	17.4	-0.42	15.2	14.1	1.11
Derek Strong	51	50	0.11	0.39	-0.29	-0.01	4	8	-4	18.1	16.1	2.00	14.4	14.9	-0.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	60	59	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.05	-3	-9	6	14.0	15.8	-1.84	18.1	15.5	2.68
Dan Majerle	65	64	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.15	0	-12	12	13.8	16.7	-2.95	18.9	13.0	5.92
Marty Conlon	15	15	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.09	-9	-3	-6	18.3	13.9	4.44	13.2	18.0	-4.81
Alonzo Mourning	61	60	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-10	8	15.0	13.8	1.23	17.8	16.0	1.87
Keith Askins	23	22	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.04	-6	-6	0	14.7	14.6	0.15	15.3	17.8	-2.51
Terry Mills	16	15	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.03	-7	-5	-2	15.0	14.5	0.45	12.5	18.1	-5.61
Eric Murdock	29	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-8	-4	-4	18.7	12.7	6.01	16.7	17.5	-0.76
Tim Hardaway	73	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.20	-4	-8	4	13.3	20.2	-6.91	17.2	17.4	-0.29
P.J. Brown	74	73	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-6	0	13.7	18.6	-4.94	18.2	12.9	5.26
Mark Strickland	39	39	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	3	-18	16.0	13.6	2.36	15.1	18.8	-3.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.53,0.41,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.06,0.11,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 97, ORL 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.43,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.24,0.22,0.29,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	94.0%
ORL 103, CHI 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.63,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%
MIL 96, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.33,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.9%