NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	86		Excitement	4.8 [826]		MVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): +11.8%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	1.0 [1043]		LVP	Dan Majerle (MIA): -12.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Dumars	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	13	59%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Henson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	100%	0.05	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Grant Long	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Montross	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.01	0.05	5	58%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	21	48%	-0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Bison Dele	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	11	50%	0.00	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.10	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	14	41%	-0.10	1	0.00	9	78%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	6	0%	-0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.03	0.01	18	71%	0.18	3	-0.07	19	68%	-0.01
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.01	0.03	11	85%	0.16	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.00	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	80%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Rex Walters	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	47%	0.00	1	-0.01	5	80%	0.01
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	6	38%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.05	-0.03	4	0%	-0.05	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.9	2.7	28.2	16.5	27.0	2.5	26.4	129.2
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +55.4%

MIA +8.4%

DET -9.2%

DET -2.0%

DET -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	17.1	15.6	15.6	97.7	113.6	102.5
season	15.9	15.8		102.8	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.9		99.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.5	16.1	17.0	16.8	17.1
MIA	14.2	18.1	13.6	16.7	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Williams	18	19	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-15	16	14.7	17.7	-3.02	17.2	15.2	1.98
Steve Henson	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-18	22	11.2	17.4	-6.15	11.8	15.8	-4.03
Eric Montross	11	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-12	10	17.5	17.1	0.48	19.3	15.1	4.17
Grant Long	20	19	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.00	-5	-9	4	18.1	16.8	1.33	16.6	15.3	1.31
Rick Mahorn	42	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.17	0	-14	14	15.4	18.7	-3.38	15.6	15.6	0.01
Grant Hill	68	69	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	-5	-4	17.3	16.4	0.94	16.4	12.8	3.59
Jerry Stackhouse	49	50	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.22	-1	-13	12	16.7	17.6	-0.93	15.9	15.2	0.74
Don Reid	25	27	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.07	-11	-3	-8	19.6	16.2	3.40	12.4	17.0	-4.56
Malik Sealy	34	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	-6	-2	16.0	17.8	-1.83	15.8	15.5	0.33
Lindsey Hunter	50	50	-0.29	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-3	-8	18.1	15.9	2.17	14.2	17.4	-3.25
Bison Dele	59	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-2	-10	17.9	15.4	2.50	15.8	15.2	0.64
Joe Dumars	60	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.03	-16	2	-18	17.2	17.0	0.18	15.6	15.6	0.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	56	55	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.16	11	3	8	16.0	14.9	1.14	16.7	17.9	-1.25
Alonzo Mourning	68	68	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.13	21	-7	28	15.4	16.2	-0.77	17.5	15.9	1.52
Tim Hardaway	72	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.07	17	-3	20	15.1	17.9	-2.85	17.3	16.4	0.87
Voshon Lenard	48	46	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.04	9	5	4	13.9	17.6	-3.71	17.4	16.8	0.65
Dan Majerle	56	58	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.01	10	4	6	16.0	14.8	1.19	17.2	17.1	0.09
Jamal Mashburn	30	31	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.10	12	2	10	15.0	15.9	-0.86	18.3	16.5	1.85
Eric Murdock	32	32	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.06	4	10	-6	17.7	14.4	3.28	15.9	17.8	-1.92
Keith Askins	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.19	-3	17	-20	17.2	14.6	2.61	16.3	17.7	-1.39
Rex Walters	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	11.8	15.8	-4.03	11.2	17.4	-6.15
Charles Smith	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	11.8	15.8	-4.03	11.2	17.4	-6.15
P.J. Brown	33	34	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.05	-3	17	-20	16.1	15.3	0.78	18.7	16.1	2.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.74,0.67,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.72,0.85,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 88, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
MIL 90, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.71,0.73,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.59,0.7,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.72,0.85,0.78,0.79,0.87,0.87,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1	95.3%
DAL 97, LAL 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.2%