NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	97		Excitement	4.4 [910]		MVP	Tyronn Lue (LAL): +8.5%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	1.1 [1188]		LVP	Erick Strickland (DAL): -12.3%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	21	56%	0.02	0	0.00	10	90%	0.03
Steve Nash	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.03	10	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Sean Rooks	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	100%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hubert Davis	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Rick Hughes	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	1	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.11	10	77%	0.01	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.01
Cedric Ceballos	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	11	37%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Shawn Bradley	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.02	-0.03	9	11%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.02	-0.03	6	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Rice	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	-0.01	-0.04	17	56%	0.08	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	14	59%	0.05	2	-0.03	23	43%	-0.09
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	9	44%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Salley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.00	0.05	6	75%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	10	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Ron Harper	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	11	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.7	31.0	16.4	24.5	2.4	36.5	136.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +36.5%

DAL -11.8%

LAL +13.3%

LAL +9.5%

LAL +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	LAL	NBA	DAL	LAL	NBA
this game	14.3	14.5	15.2	98.0	104.0	101.7
season	14.8	15.3		104.2	105.6
opponent	15.1	14.8		98.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.8	12.7	14.8	14.2	14.3
LAL	14.9	15.0	14.0	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Bradley	40	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.25	8	-16	24	14.9	13.9	1.07	14.7	14.3	0.42
Steve Nash	60	62	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.32	8	-16	24	13.9	14.9	-1.05	13.7	15.8	-2.09
Hubert Davis	49	52	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.35	8	-16	24	14.7	13.9	0.83	14.5	14.4	0.11
Rick Hughes	9	10	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	-1	-6	16.0	14.1	1.86	6.7	15.3	-8.64
Cedric Ceballos	48	49	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-5	2	14.3	14.3	-0.00	14.7	14.3	0.37
Sean Rooks	38	38	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.11	-15	7	-22	14.9	13.9	0.99	15.3	14.0	1.37
Dirk Nowitzki	67	69	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	0	-8	13.8	15.3	-1.48	14.2	15.1	-0.94
Erick Strickland	56	56	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	3	-14	13.5	15.3	-1.79	14.5	14.4	0.11
Robert Pack	39	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.05	-16	8	-24	14.9	13.9	1.05	15.8	13.7	2.09
Michael Finley	89	89	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-4	0	14.2	15.2	-0.99	14.9	11.1	3.86

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shaquille O'Neal	77	77	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.04	17	-9	26	13.4	17.9	-4.50	15.6	9.8	5.84
A.C. Green	56	54	0.52	-0.02	0.54	-0.01	18	-10	28	15.1	13.7	1.44	14.6	14.0	0.66
Glen Rice	82	81	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-2	12	14.5	14.2	0.34	14.7	12.5	2.22
Derek Fisher	54	53	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.02	15	-7	22	14.9	14.0	0.95	14.8	13.8	0.99
Ron Harper	52	50	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.08	13	-5	18	15.7	13.2	2.57	14.3	14.4	-0.11
Brian Shaw	49	49	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.34	-5	13	-18	13.2	15.7	-2.57	14.4	14.3	0.11
Rick Fox	48	48	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.28	-6	14	-20	13.7	15.2	-1.44	14.6	14.0	0.65
Tyronn Lue	47	46	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.28	-7	15	-22	14.0	14.9	-0.95	13.8	14.8	-0.99
Travis Knight	9	9	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	11	-14	16.7	14.3	2.39	11.0	14.6	-3.64
John Salley	8	7	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	11	-14	17.6	14.2	3.41	8.4	14.8	-6.33
Devean George	23	21	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.17	-9	17	-26	15.9	14.1	1.85	9.9	15.5	-5.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.78,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 109, SAC 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.88,0.79,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
IND 88, SAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.8,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.7,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
PHX 83, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.76,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%