NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	84		Excitement	9.3 [88]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +12.6%
Sacramento Kings	87		Comeback	2.1 [638]		LVP	LaPhonso Ellis (DEN): -34.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Battie	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	8	44%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	3	62%	0.05	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Eric Washington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09	-0.13	0.04	-0.01	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.06	8	50%	0.01
Johnny Newman	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	9	54%	-0.01	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	10	59%	0.05	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.19	-0.01	-0.18	-0.01	10	55%	-0.17	1	-0.01	9	89%	-0.04
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.35	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.35	-0.10	-0.24	0.00	16	42%	-0.28	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.12

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,0.01,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.12	0.02	19	56%	0.19	2	-0.06	10	100%	0.26
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mark Hendrickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	1	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	-0.08	0.00	4	78%	0.04	1	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	4	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	17	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.13	-0.03	-0.01	9	11%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	0.05	-0.18	0.02	10	68%	0.02	2	-0.18	2	50%	-0.01
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.07	-0.02	13	28%	-0.18	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	24.3	15.7	23.2	1.7	38.2	129.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN -13.8%

SAC +40.5%

SAC +7.2%

SAC +20.2%

DEN -4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	14.9	15.6	91.3	93.5	102.5
season	16.2	15.2		96.7	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.3	109.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.9	15.5	17.5	14.3	16.2
SAC	15.6	15.8	13.8	14.5	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danny Fortson	32	32	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.07	6	-9	15	14.5	17.1	-2.60	16.4	14.1	2.28
Tony Battie	60	61	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.05	1	-4	5	16.5	15.6	0.93	15.2	14.4	0.77
Johnny Newman	62	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-6	9	15.4	17.9	-2.53	15.1	14.5	0.56
LaPhonso Ellis	67	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-4	5	16.2	16.2	-0.02	14.9	15.0	-0.17
Anthony Goldwire	56	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.41	1	-4	5	15.2	17.9	-2.68	15.3	14.3	1.01
Eric Washington	46	45	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	11	-25	18.0	14.4	3.63	13.5	16.2	-2.67
Bobby Jackson	64	67	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-2	1	16.3	16.1	0.23	15.3	14.0	1.32
Dean Garrett	73	71	-0.68	0.18	-0.87	-0.33	-12	9	-21	17.0	13.2	3.80	14.1	17.5	-3.39

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mitch Richmond	73	73	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.37	13	-10	23	14.1	17.8	-3.74	17.0	13.1	3.94
Anthony Johnson	79	77	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.33	10	-7	17	14.2	18.8	-4.56	16.6	14.5	2.10
Billy Owens	68	67	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.37	6	-3	9	14.4	16.4	-2.03	16.9	14.4	2.57
Michael Stewart	60	57	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.33	7	-4	11	14.2	16.2	-2.01	17.0	15.0	1.98
Corliss Williamson	81	81	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	-3	9	15.1	13.4	1.72	16.3	15.4	0.98
Mark Hendrickson	14	15	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.02	2	1	1	12.8	15.3	-2.51	16.1	16.3	-0.19
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	13	12	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.09	-3	6	-9	19.5	14.2	5.38	12.7	16.8	-4.10
Olden Polynice	33	35	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.07	-6	9	-15	16.2	14.2	2.01	15.0	17.0	-1.98
Michael Smith	16	16	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.09	-7	10	-17	18.4	14.2	4.18	14.0	16.7	-2.70
Terry Dehere	28	27	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.24	-13	16	-29	16.6	14.2	2.37	14.0	17.2	-3.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.63,0.56,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.54,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.32,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 86, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.63,0.74,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.33,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.33,0.73,1	94.2%
ATL 99, WAS 102	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.81,0.72,0.76,0.66,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.57,0.41,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.46,0.61,0.45,0.33,0.74,1	92.5%
ATL 82, BOS 83	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.76,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.45,0.58,1	92.0%