NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	110		Excitement	7.5 [288]		MVP	Walt Williams (TOR): +18.2%
Toronto Raptors	105		Comeback	1.9 [778]		LVP	Damon Stoudamire (TOR): -23.9%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Kidd	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.04	0.02	10	81%	0.17	1	-0.02	7	71%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	14	69%	0.18	3	-0.07	7	86%	0.02
Rex Chapman	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.00	0.00	16	72%	0.22	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,0,0	-0.04	0.04	0.00	19	48%	0.06	2	-0.07	4	25%	-0.03
Kevin Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	2	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Danny Manning	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	10	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Steve Nash	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Hot Rod Williams	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Mark Bryant	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.22,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.03	-0.01	13	80%	0.23	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	11	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	5	60%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.00	0.08	-0.06	0.02	18	63%	0.07	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.02	10	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	60%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Oliver Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.01	-0.00	5	33%	-0.03	3	-0.08	2	0%	-0.03
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24	-0.24	-0.14	-0.09	0.01	15	46%	-0.07	6	-0.16	5	80%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.7	27.1	15.3	22.3	2.5	32.7	125.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +36.4%

TOR -1.1%

PHX +35.0%

TOR -23.2%

PHX +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	TOR	NBA	PHX	TOR	NBA
this game	14.1	15.3	15.6	112.2	107.1	102.5
season	15.0	15.5		105.3	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.9		108.2	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	12.7	15.8	12.4	15.8	14.1
TOR	14.0	14.8	16.4	16.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rex Chapman	71	71	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.34	11	-6	17	13.7	15.1	-1.38	15.2	15.6	-0.43
Clifford Robinson	78	77	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.35	9	-4	13	14.3	13.0	1.35	15.2	15.6	-0.32
Jason Kidd	74	72	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.28	9	-4	13	14.1	13.9	0.20	14.9	16.4	-1.45
Antonio McDyess	79	80	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	2	1	13.5	16.6	-3.11	14.9	17.2	-2.27
Mark Bryant	51	53	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.09	7	-2	9	12.4	15.9	-3.42	15.1	15.5	-0.40
Danny Manning	42	42	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.22	-1	6	-7	15.1	13.3	1.79	16.4	14.5	1.82
Kevin Johnson	17	18	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	2	1	15.2	13.8	1.34	15.5	15.3	0.22
Hot Rod Williams	38	38	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.15	-8	13	-21	16.4	12.6	3.84	16.5	14.6	1.89
Steve Nash	40	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.10	-8	13	-21	13.6	14.4	-0.75	15.2	15.4	-0.27

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zan Tabak	23	23	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.06	10	-15	25	14.3	15.6	-1.38	15.1	13.8	1.33
Carlos Rogers	19	19	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.02	5	-10	15	13.4	15.8	-2.35	14.5	14.0	0.56
Tracy McGrady	27	26	0.10	-0.60	0.69	0.01	3	-8	11	15.0	15.5	-0.49	14.1	14.1	0.01
Reggie Slater	7	7	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-7	9	17.6	15.1	2.43	13.7	14.1	-0.38
Walt Williams	67	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-4	3	15.1	15.7	-0.58	14.7	12.8	1.92
Oliver Miller	65	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.20	-10	5	-15	16.3	13.3	2.99	13.5	15.2	-1.70
Doug Christie	81	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.39	-4	-1	-3	15.3	15.2	0.10	14.2	13.5	0.66
John Wallace	46	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.31	-7	2	-9	15.0	15.6	-0.56	14.8	13.5	1.31
Marcus Camby	63	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	8	-21	15.5	15.1	0.40	13.0	16.1	-3.09
Damon Stoudamire	92	93	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.33	-10	5	-15	15.4	14.7	0.69	14.0	15.4	-1.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.5,0.58,0.54,0.58,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.29,0.27,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.31,0.16,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, CHI 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.7,0.69,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.41,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.46,0.31,0.05,0.01,0,0	92.0%
MIL 103, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.31,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.16,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.21,0.35,0.47,0.38,0.06,0.03,0,0	91.9%
NOP 105, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.12,0.19,0.08,0.18,0.24,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.15,0.31,0.04,0	91.7%