NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	81		Excitement	8.3 [176]		MVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): +35.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	83		Comeback	3.1 [394]		LVP	Jerry Stackhouse (DET): -26.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Don Reid	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Grant Long	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Henson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Mahorn	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Malik Sealy	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.03	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Joe Dumars	-0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.07	0.00	16	61%	0.20	3	-0.24	1	100%	0.01
Eric Montross	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	1	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.04
Lindsey Hunter	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.22	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	0.00	14	58%	-0.03	6	-0.19	5	60%	-0.11
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.14	-0.10	0.01	21	39%	-0.17	3	-0.09	7	71%	-0.04

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.23,0.34,0.36	0.36	0.07	0.26	-0.03	8	83%	0.43	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.12	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Lang	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	11	54%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	0.00	3	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.02
Tyrone Hill	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.07	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.04
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	4	47%	-0.14	1	-0.03	11	45%	-0.13
Ray Allen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.08	-0.01	11	25%	-0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22	-0.22	-0.14	-0.08	-0.01	21	33%	-0.15	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	2.4	30.6	16.4	25.5	2.5	36.2	134.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +8.5%

DET -10.1%

MIL +26.2%

MIL +23.1%

MIL +2.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	16.9	15.6	95.3	98.8	102.5
season	15.9	16.0		102.8	101.1
opponent	15.1	15.9		102.8	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.0	14.0	20.6	17.6	17.1
MIL	16.5	17.3	14.7	19.4	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Grant Long	25	25	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.05	4	-6	10	16.6	17.4	-0.77	17.7	16.6	1.05
Eric Montross	44	44	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.01	2	-4	6	16.7	17.7	-1.00	15.8	18.2	-2.40
Steve Henson	1	0	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-2	2	2.0	17.3	-15.32	0.0	16.9	-16.94
Rick Mahorn	9	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.04	-5	3	-8	12.2	17.7	-5.50	13.7	17.3	-3.67
Jerome Williams	22	22	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	0.10	-9	7	-16	20.6	15.9	4.65	13.3	18.2	-4.97
Joe Dumars	69	67	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.50	11	-13	24	16.1	21.7	-5.60	17.9	13.3	4.57
Grant Hill	70	68	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.48	8	-10	18	16.8	18.7	-1.93	17.9	12.7	5.18
Lindsey Hunter	33	32	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	9	-20	17.5	16.9	0.51	15.9	17.6	-1.67
Don Reid	46	47	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-4	6	17.2	17.1	0.17	18.0	15.6	2.31
Jerry Stackhouse	71	71	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-5	8	17.6	15.0	2.56	17.3	15.1	2.20
Malik Sealy	35	35	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.40	-15	13	-28	19.2	15.7	3.45	16.2	17.5	-1.27

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyrone Hill	70	70	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.36	8	-6	14	16.5	19.3	-2.81	16.8	18.9	-2.18
Glenn Robinson	77	78	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.42	4	-2	6	17.0	16.4	0.56	17.5	12.7	4.82
Armen Gilliam	38	39	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.25	7	-5	12	17.5	16.5	1.02	17.3	17.0	0.21
Michael Curry	24	23	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	0	2	17.0	16.9	0.08	17.5	17.0	0.52
Terrell Brandon	60	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	1	0	16.7	17.4	-0.67	17.3	16.7	0.67
Ray Allen	66	67	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.39	-3	5	-8	16.8	17.4	-0.64	16.6	19.3	-2.78
Elliot Perry	26	27	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	0	2	17.6	16.6	0.98	16.8	17.3	-0.53
Andrew Lang	4	5	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.05	-5	7	-12	24.7	16.5	8.20	20.0	17.0	3.04
Ervin Johnson	55	54	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.01	-6	8	-14	16.5	17.7	-1.14	17.3	16.9	0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.26,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.55,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 107, LAC 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.26,0.18,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.37,0.23,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.37,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.57,0.74,1	93.2%
DET 91, LAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.18,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.36,0.68,0.73,1	92.1%
LAL 92, GSW 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.42,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.31,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.28,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.29,0.45,0.74,1	91.7%