NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	85		Excitement	4.4 [895]		MVP	Gary Payton (SEA): +10.0%
Seattle SuperSonics	103		Comeback	1.3 [900]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): -12.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	9	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.00	0.06	7	85%	0.07	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Eric Murdock	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	5	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Jamal Mashburn	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	11	48%	-0.00	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Dan Majerle	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.01	-0.04	5	50%	0.01	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	-0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	14	43%	-0.00	5	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.13	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.07	-0.03	0.02	10	40%	-0.03	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.06	0.04	-0.00	14	71%	0.18	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	-0.00	-0.01	6	69%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.03	9	65%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.04
David Wingate	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.07	-0.02	0.04	8	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.08	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Snow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	6	56%	-0.01	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Vin Baker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.02	0.03	13	42%	-0.10	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	48.7	2.5	23.5	16.7	27.2	2.5	24.5	145.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +34.2%

MIA -9.2%

SEA +7.3%

SEA +14.0%

SEA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SEA	NBA	MIA	SEA	NBA
this game	16.6	16.0	15.6	95.5	117.0	102.5
season	15.8	15.3		104.7	109.3
opponent	16.2	16.2		102.3	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	20.0	15.4	15.0	16.1	16.6
SEA	13.7	16.6	17.0	16.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	6	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-21	24	10.2	17.0	-6.85	10.2	16.3	-6.14
Alonzo Mourning	63	63	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.11	-12	-6	-6	17.1	15.2	1.97	15.4	17.6	-2.19
Jamal Mashburn	74	73	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.19	-3	-15	12	16.3	17.7	-1.42	15.6	17.7	-2.02
P.J. Brown	58	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.13	-5	-13	8	16.3	17.1	-0.84	17.0	14.1	2.87
Voshon Lenard	58	59	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-11	4	17.1	15.5	1.69	14.9	18.1	-3.15
Eric Murdock	38	37	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	0.14	-15	-3	-12	15.8	17.1	-1.37	17.5	14.9	2.68
Ike Austin	28	27	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	0.12	-16	-2	-14	16.7	16.5	0.29	15.9	16.0	-0.09
Tim Hardaway	69	68	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.08	-15	-3	-12	16.8	15.6	1.23	15.9	16.4	-0.60
Dan Majerle	51	50	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.18	-20	2	-22	16.7	16.3	0.36	17.0	14.6	2.39

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	71	70	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.14	24	-6	30	15.9	16.5	-0.60	17.5	12.9	4.58
Dale Ellis	41	42	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.13	21	-3	24	17.2	14.9	2.30	17.1	16.1	1.03
Gary Payton	67	68	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	6	6	15.7	16.9	-1.20	17.0	15.1	1.90
Hersey Hawkins	67	66	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.14	16	2	14	16.4	14.6	1.86	16.7	16.0	0.68
Sam Perkins	42	39	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.08	8	10	-2	17.2	14.9	2.34	16.1	16.9	-0.89
Greg Anthony	29	29	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.12	9	9	0	16.8	15.6	1.15	15.9	16.9	-1.02
Vin Baker	63	65	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.10	8	10	-2	16.1	15.6	0.49	16.8	16.0	0.81
David Wingate	19	21	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.11	0	18	-18	14.3	16.5	-2.20	15.5	16.9	-1.41
Jim McIlvaine	26	27	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.02	1	17	-16	15.4	16.2	-0.86	17.6	16.1	1.55
Aaron Williams	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	10.2	16.3	-6.14	10.2	17.0	-6.85
Eric Snow	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	21	-24	10.2	16.3	-6.14	10.2	17.0	-6.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.79,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 94, BOS 113	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.84,0.77,0.83,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
ORL 84, BOS 97	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.74,0.7,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.82,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.73,0.73,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%
UTA 85, PHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.88,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%