NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	87		Excitement	8.0 [222]		MVP	Kerry Kittles (NJN): +16.1%
New Jersey Nets	89		Comeback	2.0 [659]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -34.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bo Outlaw	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rony Seikaly	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.06	-0.01	17	60%	0.00	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.03
Gerald Wilkins	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	6	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Derek Harper	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	0.07	12	54%	-0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.03
Horace Grant	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	0.01	13	43%	-0.04	3	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.34	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.28,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34,-0.34	-0.20	-0.18	-0.04	15	16%	-0.26	2	-0.08	1	100%	0.01

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kerry Kittles	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.10	0.02	17	66%	0.22	2	-0.06	7	86%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	10	67%	0.12	5	-0.16	4	100%	0.03
Kevin Edwards	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
David Benoit	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Michael Cage	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Williams	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	6	50%	-0.03	2	-0.07	6	83%	-0.02
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	17	49%	-0.03	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.34,-0.33	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.01	14	32%	-0.33	0	0.00	13	54%	-0.14

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	1.8	30.1	20.5	27.2	1.8	42.0	145.7
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +19.3%

NJN +17.6%

NJN +27.0%

ORL -11.3%

ORL -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NJN	NBA	ORL	NJN	NBA
this game	16.4	15.8	15.6	96.7	100.0	102.5
season	16.7	15.6		100.3	104.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		103.9	101.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.5	17.8	14.1	17.5	16.4
NJN	17.8	15.0	16.6	13.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Wilkins	41	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.15	5	-7	12	16.1	16.6	-0.49	15.2	16.3	-1.10
Dan Schayes	8	8	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.01	-1	-1	0	16.7	16.4	0.37	14.1	15.9	-1.80
Horace Grant	69	69	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.39	8	-10	18	15.8	18.6	-2.82	16.0	14.9	1.05
Rony Seikaly	79	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.45	-1	-1	0	16.8	13.5	3.26	16.3	11.7	4.58
Bo Outlaw	60	57	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	0.04	-18	16	-34	17.0	15.3	1.67	16.4	14.7	1.63
Derek Harper	65	65	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.52	-2	0	-2	16.0	17.4	-1.42	15.2	17.2	-1.92
Darrell Armstrong	72	72	-0.67	0.17	-0.85	-0.53	-5	3	-8	16.8	14.9	1.83	16.3	13.5	2.83

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kendall Gill	68	69	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.57	5	-3	8	15.8	15.7	0.07	17.2	13.9	3.33
Jayson Williams	66	64	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.48	5	-3	8	15.6	16.3	-0.67	17.0	15.0	2.04
Keith Van Horn	79	81	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.49	0	2	-2	16.1	13.0	3.11	16.6	14.6	2.06
Kerry Kittles	79	78	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	2	-2	15.8	15.3	0.52	16.3	17.4	-1.16
Sherman Douglas	69	70	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.31	-8	10	-18	15.8	15.7	0.08	15.8	18.4	-2.56
Kevin Edwards	15	16	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.07	2	0	2	18.5	15.2	3.25	15.7	16.6	-0.88
David Benoit	22	22	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.06	0	2	-2	14.0	16.3	-2.34	15.4	16.7	-1.39
Michael Cage	24	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	3	-4	17.2	15.2	2.03	15.6	16.7	-1.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.62,0.63,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.65,0.78,0.69,0.79,0.8,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 99, MEM 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.61,0.48,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.59,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.78,0.94,0.92,1	92.3%
DAL 103, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.74,0.86,0.95,1	92.2%
CHI 81, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.97,1,1	92.1%