NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	81		Excitement	6.2 [554]		MVP	Marvin Williams (ATL): +12.4%
Atlanta Hawks	91		Comeback	3.5 [607]		LVP	Joe Smith (ATL): -6.5%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.02	11	45%	0.05	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.04
Derrick Rose	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.03	21	43%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Luol Deng	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.04	-0.03	14	59%	0.11	4	-0.12	6	67%	-0.02
Taj Gibson	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	10	48%	0.02	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Tyrus Thomas	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Brad Miller	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.00	6	71%	0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.02	8	65%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	14	51%	0.11	1	-0.04	7	57%	-0.04
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.03	0.09	-0.01	20	45%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.01	16	45%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	0.03	16	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.5	32.8	19.0	26.3	2.6	32.0	143.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +30.0%

CHI -14.2%

ATL +15.2%

ATL +17.6%

ATL +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	17.5	15.3	92.0	105.8	106.0
season	14.7	16.0		101.9	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.7		106.0	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.9	14.2	16.3	17.8	15.7
ATL	15.1	17.9	16.4	21.0	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Devin Brown	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-8	6	18.4	15.2	3.19	12.7	18.4	-5.66
Tyrus Thomas	29	30	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-9	8	16.1	15.4	0.70	16.3	18.1	-1.72
Luol Deng	66	63	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-6	2	15.0	17.8	-2.86	17.3	17.9	-0.57
Taj Gibson	62	59	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-3	-4	16.1	14.7	1.44	17.4	17.6	-0.15
John Salmons	52	51	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.19	-6	-4	-2	15.7	15.6	0.15	17.0	18.1	-1.16
Derrick Rose	74	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	15.0	19.4	-4.38	18.2	13.5	4.70
Brad Miller	72	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.17	-10	0	-10	15.4	16.8	-1.40	18.2	14.0	4.18
Kirk Hinrich	71	69	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	1	-12	16.2	13.5	2.65	17.9	15.5	2.40

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	54	57	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.13	17	-7	24	17.8	16.8	0.97	16.5	14.1	2.43
Josh Smith	75	76	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-4	18	17.5	17.2	0.31	16.0	13.7	2.22
Joe Johnson	72	74	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.17	10	0	10	18.1	14.2	3.87	15.0	19.4	-4.38
Al Horford	78	79	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.19	9	1	8	17.6	16.1	1.46	15.4	18.0	-2.59
Jamal Crawford	53	52	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.24	6	4	2	17.5	17.3	0.24	15.5	15.9	-0.37
Marvin Williams	48	49	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	9	-8	17.6	17.2	0.39	15.7	15.6	0.05
Zaza Pachulia	8	9	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.01	1	9	-8	16.1	17.6	-1.46	18.0	15.4	2.59
Jeff Teague	7	7	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	17.7	17.4	0.28	17.7	15.5	2.22
Mario West	2	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.01	-1	11	-12	12.5	17.6	-5.07	0.0	15.9	-15.85
Maurice Evans	23	24	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.04	-1	11	-12	14.7	18.5	-3.76	16.1	15.5	0.62
Joe Smith	10	12	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.03	-4	14	-18	16.5	17.6	-1.08	13.7	16.0	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 84, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.22,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.71,0.73,0.85,0.93,1,1,1	94.1%
SAC 104, TOR 115	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1	92.9%
MIN 108, SAS 112	0.5,0.5,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.56,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.52,0.42,0.52,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.39,0.42,0.64,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.85,0.85,0.92,1	92.9%