NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	104		Excitement	7.4 [307]		MVP	Chris Bosh (TOR): +42.7%
Toronto Raptors	115		Comeback	3.6 [601]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (SAC): -15.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sean May	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.06	0.06	0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ime Udoka	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	1	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	10	52%	0.10	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.07
Jason Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	-0.04	0.00	7	59%	0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Beno Udrih	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	5	53%	0.00	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.10
Kevin Martin	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.07	0.03	18	50%	-0.05	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.03
Andres Nocioni	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	10	50%	-0.00	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Omri Casspi	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	8	52%	0.02	5	-0.15	5	100%	0.02
Spencer Hawes	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	16	41%	-0.10	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.28,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.43	0.43	0.25	0.17	-0.00	18	77%	0.48	2	-0.05	11	73%	0.02
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.27	0.10	0.14	-0.02	7	100%	0.34	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	15	65%	0.06	3	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Sonny Weems	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	41%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	54%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.10	0.01	14	50%	-0.02	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	2.4	32.2	17.7	25.8	1.6	29.8	134.8
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +58.9%

TOR +15.8%

SAC -17.4%

SAC -2.7%

SAC -4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	TOR	NBA	SAC	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	15.0	15.3	107.2	119.8	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		103.7	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.0		111.5	108.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.9	12.9	14.2	17.8	14.8
TOR	13.3	14.8	15.1	17.3	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omri Casspi	40	41	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.15	0	-11	11	15.0	14.7	0.31	13.5	16.1	-2.60
Ime Udoka	1	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-10	9	26.0	14.7	11.27	4.0	15.2	-11.23
Sean May	17	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.06	0	-11	11	15.6	14.7	0.90	15.2	15.0	0.22
Andres Nocioni	57	57	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.19	3	-14	17	14.8	14.8	-0.01	15.4	14.5	0.86
Jason Thompson	42	43	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-12	13	14.5	15.1	-0.65	16.7	13.7	2.99
Beno Udrih	42	42	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.13	-3	-8	5	14.7	15.0	-0.27	15.6	14.6	1.02
Donte Greene	58	57	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	0.03	-13	2	-15	15.2	14.4	0.77	13.5	17.2	-3.63
Spencer Hawes	73	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	14.6	15.5	-0.93	15.4	14.0	1.35
Tyreke Evans	80	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.11	-12	1	-13	14.5	16.5	-1.97	15.2	14.1	1.09
Kevin Martin	75	73	-0.86	0.36	-1.23	-0.22	-22	11	-33	15.1	14.0	1.03	15.1	14.7	0.46

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	81	83	0.88	-0.38	1.26	0.18	24	-13	37	14.9	15.8	-0.95	15.5	11.1	4.41
Jose Calderon	38	39	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.27	10	1	9	16.8	13.8	2.96	15.8	14.2	1.59
Antoine Wright	43	44	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.10	15	-4	19	15.3	14.8	0.55	15.8	14.0	1.78
Andrea Bargnani	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.13	8	3	5	15.0	15.0	0.06	14.6	15.7	-1.08
Hedo Turkoglu	75	76	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	6	-1	14.7	16.0	-1.34	14.8	14.9	-0.02
Sonny Weems	23	23	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.04	2	9	-7	15.5	14.8	0.63	14.5	14.9	-0.42
DeMar DeRozan	50	50	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.01	2	9	-7	14.4	15.7	-1.29	14.3	15.5	-1.21
Jarrett Jack	61	61	-0.07	0.56	-0.63	-0.12	2	9	-7	14.0	16.7	-2.74	14.1	16.1	-2.06
Amir Johnson	34	34	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.07	-13	24	-37	16.0	14.5	1.50	13.9	15.3	-1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.4,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.52,0.58,0.42,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.92,0.96,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 84, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.48,0.36,0.22,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.71,0.73,0.85,0.93,1,1,1	93.8%
DET 91, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.42,0.64,0.8,0.74,0.9,0.93,0.99,1,1	93.4%
SAC 102, GSW 105	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.61,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.52,0.48,0.59,0.59,0.44,0.32,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.76,0.78,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.98,1	93.2%