NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	72		Excitement	2.8 [1157]		MVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): +9.5%
Miami Heat	99		Comeback	2.4 [535]		LVP	Toni Kukoc (CHI): -10.6%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jud Buechler	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.01	0.02	4	87%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	5	50%	0.02	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Scott Burrell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	71%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	27	46%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	33%	0.01
Dennis Rodman	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bill Wennington	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Kleine	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	5	20%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	-0.07	6	14%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Luc Longley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	10	30%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.04	-0.04	11	65%	0.14	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.04
P.J. Brown	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	7	75%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	10	65%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	13	64%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	14	53%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	150%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Askins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.04	10	67%	0.01	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	2.8	26.0	17.0	23.2	2.4	23.6	118.6
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.6%

MIA +10.8%

MIA +3.4%

MIA +7.8%

CHI -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	21.0	16.2	15.6	93.5	126.9	102.5
season	16.2	15.8		105.8	104.7
opponent	16.2	15.8		99.8	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	20.2	22.3	22.2	19.3	21.0
MIA	15.8	13.7	16.9	18.6	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Burrell	16	15	0.03	-0.53	0.57	0.03	0	-27	27	20.4	21.1	-0.71	21.2	15.0	6.20
Bill Wennington	2	1	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	-23	19	23.5	20.9	2.57	8.0	16.3	-8.30
Luc Longley	26	27	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.02	-2	-25	23	19.7	21.7	-2.03	17.1	15.7	1.46
Jason Caffey	18	19	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-24	21	20.1	21.3	-1.16	14.4	16.8	-2.41
Randy Brown	24	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.13	-8	-19	11	21.6	20.7	0.91	15.1	16.6	-1.51
Ron Harper	45	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-25	23	19.9	22.5	-2.62	15.9	16.7	-0.86
Jud Buechler	25	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.14	-9	-18	9	20.9	21.0	-0.12	14.5	17.2	-2.70
Joe Kleine	28	30	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.15	-13	-14	1	20.7	21.2	-0.45	15.2	16.8	-1.61
Steve Kerr	28	29	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.22	-20	-7	-13	21.7	20.6	1.07	16.2	16.2	0.08
Toni Kukoc	44	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.11	-16	-11	-5	21.6	20.2	1.33	16.7	15.6	1.18
Michael Jordan	58	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.24	-23	-4	-19	21.0	21.1	-0.14	16.6	15.1	1.51
Dennis Rodman	71	70	-0.55	0.05	-0.59	0.48	-35	8	-43	21.8	11.5	10.30	16.4	14.4	2.03

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	57	57	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.25	26	1	25	16.7	14.9	1.83	21.2	20.5	0.61
Dan Majerle	39	40	0.45	0.05	0.39	-0.29	25	2	23	16.1	16.3	-0.18	22.9	18.9	3.95
Ike Austin	35	35	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.11	18	9	9	15.8	16.5	-0.76	21.5	20.6	0.84
Alonzo Mourning	58	57	0.33	0.17	0.16	-0.34	23	4	19	15.5	18.2	-2.77	21.5	19.5	2.03
Eric Murdock	25	25	0.26	0.24	0.03	-0.06	11	16	-5	16.4	16.1	0.36	20.3	21.3	-1.07
P.J. Brown	56	55	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.28	18	9	9	17.2	13.7	3.43	21.0	20.9	0.13
Tim Hardaway	53	52	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.23	16	11	5	16.1	16.4	-0.36	21.3	20.3	1.07
Voshon Lenard	45	44	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.15	7	20	-13	15.8	16.8	-0.98	20.2	22.1	-1.96
Mark Strickland	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.15	-5	32	-37	16.4	16.2	0.26	11.5	21.8	-10.30
Keith Askins	15	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.10	-4	31	-35	15.8	16.3	-0.49	18.2	21.6	-3.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.31,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.44,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 78, NYK 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
MEM 87, WAS 107	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.84,0.77,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
LAC 93, BKN 102	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%