NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Vancouver Grizzlies	80		Excitement	2.7 [1166]		MVP	Bobby Hurley (SAC): +8.3%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	1.2 [868]		LVP	Bryant Reeves (VAN): -9.4%

Vancouver Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.16	-0.01	0.10	13	83%	0.10	2	-0.05	10	100%	0.02
Pete Chilcutt	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	0.00	0.03	3	83%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lee Mayberry	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	8	37%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	33%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	12	50%	-0.00	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Robinson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.13	-0.00	-0.08	10	25%	-0.01	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	8	50%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Blue Edwards	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.04	5	25%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Bryant Reeves	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	-0.05	8	27%	-0.07	2	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	-0.07	8	61%	0.10	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	-0.04	9	59%	0.06	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Mark Hendrickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	57%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	18	55%	0.05	4	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Terry Dehere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	43%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	11	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	13	48%	-0.00	3	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Michael Stewart	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.12	0.00	-0.08	4	20%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	6	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.2	22.6	15.8	22.2	2.5	27.2	116.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +24.6%

SAC +1.0%

SAC +3.2%

SAC +18.1%

SAC +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	VAN	SAC	NBA	VAN	SAC	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.6	84.2	100.0	102.5
season	15.1	15.2		101.3	98.5
opponent	15.3	15.3		104.3	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
VAN	17.5	15.4	13.9	12.1	14.6
SAC	13.8	19.1	18.9	13.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Vancouver Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pete Chilcutt	34	34	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.13	1	-15	16	12.7	15.6	-2.92	16.1	15.8	0.24
Lee Mayberry	45	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-13	12	12.8	16.2	-3.42	15.5	16.2	-0.68
Chris Robinson	46	46	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-11	8	13.3	15.8	-2.51	13.4	18.3	-4.92
Bryant Reeves	69	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-12	10	15.0	13.3	1.70	16.5	14.2	2.31
Blue Edwards	43	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.10	-4	-10	6	16.3	13.2	3.06	18.5	13.7	4.72
George Lynch	45	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.03	-10	-4	-6	13.1	15.9	-2.83	14.7	16.9	-2.17
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	69	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.05	-12	-2	-10	15.2	13.0	2.17	15.9	15.9	0.03
Antonio Daniels	56	56	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	0.09	-20	6	-26	15.8	12.8	2.98	16.3	15.3	0.94
Otis Thorpe	68	68	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	0.04	-19	5	-24	15.4	12.4	2.98	15.9	15.8	0.08

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	53	55	0.44	0.06	0.38	-0.00	15	-1	16	16.6	15.0	1.65	13.9	15.5	-1.68
Bobby Hurley	40	42	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.01	13	1	12	16.8	15.2	1.65	14.0	15.1	-1.08
Terry Dehere	41	40	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	2	10	17.6	14.6	2.94	13.6	15.3	-1.69
Tariq Abdul-Wahad	43	45	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	5	4	17.4	14.6	2.83	16.4	12.9	3.46
Mark Hendrickson	48	50	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.01	10	4	6	14.3	17.6	-3.30	13.3	16.0	-2.78
Billy Owens	71	71	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	6	2	15.1	18.5	-3.41	14.7	14.1	0.66
Michael Stewart	57	55	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.10	4	10	-6	16.2	15.4	0.82	15.2	13.7	1.43
Mitch Richmond	63	64	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.20	-2	16	-18	15.0	17.6	-2.60	14.8	14.0	0.81
Anthony Johnson	54	53	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.07	1	13	-12	15.2	16.8	-1.65	15.1	14.0	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 106, TOR 115	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
IND 87, WAS 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.79,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%
NJN 71, HOU 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%