NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	9.0 [106]		MVP	Oliver Miller (TOR): +14.0%
Toronto Raptors	92		Comeback	8.2 [78]		LVP	Armen Gilliam (MIL): -35.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ricky Pierce	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.03	0.09	0.00	8	59%	0.12	0	0.00	6	100%	0.05
Michael Curry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyrone Hill	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	55%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	25%	-0.06
Elliot Perry	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.01	5	42%	-0.01	4	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	23	41%	-0.10	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Tony Smith	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	5	25%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Ray Allen	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.28	-0.14	-0.14	-0.00	10	15%	-0.23	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.35	0.01	-0.36	0.00	13	64%	-0.22	3	-0.13	10	70%	-0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Oliver Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.01	10	73%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.07,0.14	0.14	0.01	0.12	-0.01	25	60%	0.31	5	-0.17	10	80%	-0.02
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	1	87%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.05	0.08	-0.02	10	55%	0.15	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Walt Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.21,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.16	-0.11	-0.01	10	21%	-0.18	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	32.1	15.8	28.2	2.7	36.3	141.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +85.5%

MIL -12.3%

MIL -15.0%

MIL -12.1%

TOR +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.9	15.6	15.6	102.2	104.5	102.5
season	16.0	15.5		101.1	98.7
opponent	14.8	15.1		108.2	102.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	14.7	14.3	18.7	20.6	16.9
TOR	16.0	17.0	14.9	14.4	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Curry	18	17	0.30	-0.80	1.10	0.19	4	-5	9	18.4	16.5	1.90	15.6	15.6	0.06
Ervin Johnson	45	42	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.26	-5	4	-9	18.3	15.5	2.79	15.0	16.2	-1.20
Elliot Perry	43	43	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	0	-1	17.0	16.9	0.04	16.7	14.6	2.10
Tony Smith	44	41	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.20	0	-1	1	16.7	17.1	-0.36	14.2	16.8	-2.63
Ricky Pierce	42	40	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.70	10	-11	21	17.4	16.5	0.89	15.9	15.4	0.55
Armen Gilliam	51	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.65	8	-9	17	16.7	17.3	-0.62	15.9	15.1	0.78
Ray Allen	48	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.09	-11	10	-21	16.6	17.3	-0.62	15.6	15.6	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	76	75	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.54	-1	0	-1	16.7	18.3	-1.61	15.7	15.3	0.35
Tyrone Hill	78	78	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.51	-9	8	-17	16.2	22.1	-5.89	15.7	15.1	0.57

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	68	68	0.79	-0.28	1.07	0.58	7	-6	13	15.4	16.2	-0.84	17.0	16.7	0.35
Marcus Camby	80	80	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.54	6	-5	11	15.4	17.7	-2.36	16.2	23.4	-7.24
Oliver Miller	51	52	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.56	0	1	-1	15.6	15.6	0.06	18.9	14.2	4.65
Walt Williams	67	70	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.50	2	-1	3	15.5	15.9	-0.33	18.0	13.2	4.80
Damon Stoudamire	75	77	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.54	-2	3	-5	15.9	14.2	1.70	17.8	11.7	6.09
Reggie Slater	10	11	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.03	-3	4	-7	16.2	15.5	0.67	12.7	17.5	-4.80
John Wallace	34	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.15	0	1	-1	15.0	16.0	-1.03	16.9	17.0	-0.12
Tracy McGrady	30	29	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.10	-2	3	-5	16.0	15.4	0.55	13.8	18.5	-4.71
Zan Tabak	25	23	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.10	-3	4	-7	16.4	15.3	1.11	15.1	17.6	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.51,0.42,0.3,0.25,0.2,0.28,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.31,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 87, PHX 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.32,0.38,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.55,0.48,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.23,0.22,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.36,0.32,0.28,1	91.5%
NYK 104, BOS 105	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.44,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.24,0.31,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.27,1	90.8%
SEA 92, GSW 94	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.44,0.36,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.56,0.63,0.58,0.46,0.3,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.36,0.29,0.4,0.33,0.28,0.23,0.42,1	90.4%