NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	109		Excitement	12.6 [9]		MVP	Ed Gray (ATL): +29.5%
Toronto Raptors	104		Comeback	6.2 [279]		LVP	Mookie Blaylock (ATL): -39.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ed Gray	0.30	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.3	0.06	0.24	0.01	13	67%	0.42	2	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Christian Laettner	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.01	14	66%	0.20	3	-0.14	7	71%	-0.03
Greg Anderson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrone Corbin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	45%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.03
Eldridge Recasner	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	6	38%	-0.02	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Chucky Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	6	56%	-0.03	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,0.01,0.01,-0.08,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.01	-0.02	28	51%	0.21	6	-0.32	11	55%	-0.06
Mookie Blaylock	-0.40	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.29,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.36,-0.36,-0.4	-0.28	-0.14	-0.02	18	17%	-0.23	3	-0.16	4	25%	-0.07

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,0.14,0.08,0.08,-0.05,0.1,0.1	0.10	-0.06	0.12	-0.04	28	49%	0.30	4	-0.20	5	80%	0.00
Chris Garner	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Rogers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	7	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Respert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	9	43%	-0.09	0	0.00	12	75%	-0.02
Popeye Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.15	-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.02	20	48%	0.04	3	-0.20	4	75%	0.02
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.15,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.17,-0.17,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.09	-0.22	-0.01	14	39%	-0.14	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.03,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.37,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.13	-0.19	0.00	20	47%	-0.00	6	-0.32	5	100%	0.19

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	20.9	2.4	24.9	14.6	25.6	2.4	31.5	1.7	20.6	1.6	16.1	162.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	1.6	18.4	1.6	18.4	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +84.0%

TOR -37.0%

TOR -18.5%

ATL +26.8%

TOR -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	TOR	NBA	ATL	TOR	NBA
this game	14.2	16.6	15.6	96.5	92.0	102.5
season	16.1	15.5		105.3	98.7
opponent	14.8	16.0		108.2	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ATL	12.8	16.5	15.1	17.3	8.8	14.5
TOR	15.5	16.2	18.3	17.0	14.2	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dikembe Mutombo	106	106	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.42	9	-4	13	14.1	15.0	-0.86	17.0	11.0	5.97
Eldridge Recasner	30	28	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.22	11	-6	17	15.9	13.6	2.28	18.6	16.0	2.62
Mookie Blaylock	105	105	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.37	-1	6	-7	14.1	15.7	-1.67	16.5	18.0	-1.50
Tyrone Corbin	86	85	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.21	0	5	-5	14.5	13.3	1.18	16.8	16.1	0.71
Chucky Brown	53	53	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.06	8	-3	11	15.7	12.9	2.80	16.8	16.4	0.32
Ed Gray	67	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.25	-3	8	-11	13.3	15.6	-2.31	15.9	17.7	-1.88
Christian Laettner	90	90	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.01	-1	6	-7	14.4	13.3	1.17	16.3	17.7	-1.37
Greg Anderson	5	6	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.01	-3	8	-11	15.4	14.1	1.26	12.8	16.8	-3.98

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carlos Rogers	34	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	0	-5	18.1	15.9	2.21	12.7	14.9	-2.19
Reggie Slater	99	99	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.39	4	-9	13	16.5	17.6	-1.19	14.2	13.9	0.30
John Wallace	111	109	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.35	0	-5	5	16.6	18.0	-1.42	14.4	8.2	6.16
Doug Christie	101	101	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.39	0	-5	5	16.6	16.3	0.30	14.0	15.7	-1.74
Shawn Respert	26	30	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.00	-14	9	-23	17.0	16.5	0.52	14.1	14.2	-0.08
Popeye Jones	86	84	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-2	-1	16.1	18.1	-1.98	14.8	12.6	2.21
Damon Stoudamire	108	107	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.33	-6	1	-7	16.5	18.2	-1.67	14.2	14.5	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.68,0.77,0.85,0.81,0.81,0.76,0.83,0.72,0.74,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.03,0.08,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.43,0.08,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.78,0.73,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 114, MIA 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.8,0.8,0.68,0.58,0.38,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.17,0.12,0.22,0.31,0.15,0.01,0.02,0	86.0%
POR 98, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.78,0.76,0.76,0.71,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.81,0.68,0.62,0.57,0.44,0.38,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.34,0.15,0.16,0.03,0.01,0	85.9%
POR 115, CHI 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.81,0.68,0.54,0.48,0.48,0.62,0.58,0.3,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.23,0.42,0.46,0.75,0.55,0.15,0.27,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.43,0.74,0	85.8%