NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	87		Excitement	7.4 [305]		MVP	Rony Seikaly (ORL): +20.0%
Orlando Magic	95		Comeback	2.0 [596]		LVP	Rod Strickland (WAS): -23.2%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Whitney	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	1	150%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzo Williams	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.04,-0.12,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	28	47%	-0.00	1	-0.01	6	67%	-0.07
Ben Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Harvey Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.06	0.02	16	57%	-0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Terry Davis	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	17	38%	0.04	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	10	48%	-0.03	2	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04
Rod Strickland	-0.23	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.23	-0.15	-0.09	-0.01	15	28%	-0.18	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rony Seikaly	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.09	0.11	0.01	14	73%	0.26	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	9	61%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	13	47%	0.06	0	0.00	6	83%	0.05
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Evans	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Price	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.01	10	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	1	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	7	50%	-0.05	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.03
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	14	44%	-0.06	3	-0.13	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	25.2	15.6	23.2	1.8	30.2	123.8
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +35.5%

ORL +22.4%

WAS -13.6%

ORL +2.9%

ORL +2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	16.2	16.4	15.6	98.9	106.7	102.5
season	15.1	16.7		102.8	100.3
opponent	15.6	15.6		101.4	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.8	15.0	18.9	16.5	16.2
ORL	15.9	17.0	16.3	16.3	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben Wallace	16	17	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.04	5	-13	18	18.4	15.7	2.76	16.8	16.3	0.50
Darvin Ham	0	1	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.02	0	-8	8	0.0	16.2	-16.18	1.0	16.5	-15.53
Terry Davis	35	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-8	8	16.3	16.1	0.17	16.5	16.3	0.24
Calbert Cheaney	51	51	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.19	-1	-7	6	16.4	15.9	0.41	15.6	17.4	-1.81
Chris Whitney	9	10	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.03	-7	-1	-6	15.9	16.2	-0.33	14.1	16.6	-2.55
Rod Strickland	79	79	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-7	6	16.2	15.9	0.33	16.6	14.1	2.55
Lorenzo Williams	11	12	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	-2	-4	16.5	16.1	0.31	16.9	16.3	0.64
Chris Webber	78	78	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.14	-6	-2	-4	16.2	16.3	-0.13	15.7	20.7	-4.98
Harvey Grant	28	28	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.13	-7	-1	-6	15.3	16.6	-1.26	18.1	15.6	2.55
Tracy Murray	57	57	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-2	-4	16.0	16.5	-0.57	16.4	16.3	0.02
Juwan Howard	76	76	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.21	-11	3	-14	16.0	17.4	-1.43	16.8	13.7	3.12

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	44	41	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-2	12	15.6	17.1	-1.43	16.5	15.9	0.53
Nick Anderson	40	40	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.23	7	1	6	17.5	15.4	2.03	17.2	15.3	1.87
Derek Strong	54	53	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.28	4	4	0	16.6	16.0	0.64	16.3	16.0	0.25
Anfernee Hardaway	73	71	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.16	5	3	2	16.2	17.2	-1.01	15.5	19.2	-3.71
Bo Outlaw	46	46	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	-1	10	15.2	17.6	-2.36	15.5	16.9	-1.34
Rony Seikaly	67	66	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.13	3	5	-2	15.6	18.7	-3.08	16.0	16.7	-0.73
Dan Schayes	9	10	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	5	-2	21.8	15.7	6.03	20.2	15.7	4.53
Derek Harper	16	17	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	5	-2	17.2	16.2	1.01	19.2	15.5	3.71
Horace Grant	48	48	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.04	0	8	-8	16.9	15.7	1.25	15.3	17.2	-1.87
Brian Evans	2	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.01	-2	10	-12	8.5	16.5	-8.04	12.0	16.2	-4.23
Mark Price	46	47	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	-0.02	-2	10	-12	16.7	16.0	0.74	15.9	16.5	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.7,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.72,0.64,0.59,0.5,0.46,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.79,0.95,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, POR 112	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.72,0.9,0.96,1	92.9%
DEN 72, MEM 81	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.6,0.44,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.6,0.46,0.78,0.97,1,1	92.5%
DAL 103, LAL 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.6,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.37,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.47,0.58,0.69,0.59,0.54,0.61,0.74,0.86,0.95,1	92.4%