NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	82		Excitement	7.5 [291]		MVP	Glen Rice (CHH): +21.5%
Charlotte Hornets	89		Comeback	3.0 [384]		LVP	Rik Smits (IND): -31.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.13	-0.01	0.14	-0.01	17	54%	0.20	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.04
Mark Jackson	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.02
Jalen Rose	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.03
Mark Pope	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0	-0.05	0.04	-0.01	11	50%	0.11	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.04	-0.03	9	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.04
Dale Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	9	64%	0.09	8	-0.22	4	100%	0.03
Rik Smits	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.10	-0.21	0.00	13	36%	-0.24	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.14

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Rice	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.13	0.01	18	65%	0.26	1	-0.05	10	90%	0.03
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.09,0.03,0.03,0.16	0.16	-0.02	0.18	-0.01	16	53%	0.24	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
Dell Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.13	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Farmer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Beck	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
J.R. Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.01	14	39%	-0.02	4	-0.12	3	67%	0.00
Anthony Mason	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2	-0.20	-0.14	-0.06	-0.01	9	30%	-0.14	1	-0.06	9	67%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	1.7	25.2	14.7	24.3	1.6	40.9	134.9
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +7.7%

CHH +13.8%

CHH +21.4%

CHH +6.5%

CHH +0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	CHH	NBA	IND	CHH	NBA
this game	16.7	16.5	15.6	95.3	101.1	102.5
season	16.0	15.7		105.3	104.0
opponent	15.9	16.1		102.6	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.0	17.0	17.4	16.3	16.7
CHH	15.3	16.5	16.1	18.0	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Pope	20	22	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.08	6	-13	19	16.8	16.6	0.26	17.8	16.0	1.82
Chris Mullin	68	70	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.05	-4	-3	-1	16.0	18.9	-2.90	15.4	20.4	-5.02
Dale Davis	53	54	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-6	5	15.9	17.8	-1.89	16.1	16.9	-0.79
Jalen Rose	35	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.34	5	-12	17	17.2	16.3	0.88	19.4	14.4	5.06
Travis Best	56	58	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.25	2	-9	11	16.5	16.9	-0.33	16.4	16.5	-0.02
Antonio Davis	51	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-9	11	16.9	16.3	0.52	17.0	15.6	1.42
Mark Jackson	30	30	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.04	-9	2	-11	16.9	16.5	0.33	16.5	16.4	0.02
Rik Smits	52	51	-0.77	0.27	-1.05	-0.22	-19	12	-31	17.5	15.4	2.05	16.2	16.9	-0.71
Reggie Miller	65	66	-0.88	0.38	-1.25	-0.38	-17	10	-27	16.7	16.4	0.29	15.5	19.4	-3.88

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Mason	73	72	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.38	18	-11	29	16.3	17.0	-0.66	17.0	15.0	1.97
Vlade Divac	70	69	0.88	-0.38	1.27	0.38	17	-10	27	16.7	15.4	1.34	17.1	14.8	2.28
Corey Beck	48	45	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.29	11	-4	15	16.7	16.2	0.51	17.0	16.3	0.64
David Wesley	80	78	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.31	8	-1	9	16.8	13.4	3.39	16.7	16.1	0.58
Glen Rice	79	78	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.28	5	2	3	17.0	11.6	5.46	16.8	15.2	1.54
Tony Farmer	9	8	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	5	-3	11.6	17.0	-5.46	15.2	16.8	-1.54
Dell Curry	48	48	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.01	-5	12	-17	15.7	17.3	-1.64	16.2	17.3	-1.10
Matt Geiger	18	18	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	-0.09	-10	17	-27	15.4	16.7	-1.34	15.2	17.0	-1.81
J.R. Reid	15	14	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.09	-11	18	-29	17.0	16.3	0.66	15.0	17.0	-1.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.46,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.73,0.79,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.47,0.25,0.37,0.76,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 90, DET 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.35,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.56,0.62,0.65,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.55,0.76,0.85,1	92.1%
VAN 98, PHX 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.59,0.55,0.65,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.4,0.53,0.45,0.63,0.76,0.85,1	91.0%
MIL 92, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.75,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.58,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.6,0.55,0.55,0.68,0.73,1	90.6%