NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	93		Excitement	4.4 [912]		MVP	Steven Smith (ATL): +6.8%
Philadelphia 76ers	88		Comeback	1.0 [1013]		LVP	Derrick Coleman (PHI): -13.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steven Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.02	-0.04	17	59%	0.14	4	-0.07	3	100%	0.00
Ed Gray	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.04	13	67%	0.12	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Tyrone Corbin	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.01	-0.03	4	25%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	15	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.01
Mookie Blaylock	-0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.14	-0.03	-0.05	13	37%	-0.04	4	-0.08	4	50%	-0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	11	74%	0.12	3	-0.08	1	0%	-0.01
Mark Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	0%	-0.03
Terry Cummings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Overton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	7	36%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rex Walters	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0.02	17	54%	-0.02	2	-0.01	5	80%	0.00
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	0.04	13	59%	-0.01	3	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	11	30%	-0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Derrick Coleman	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.15	-0.02	-0.03	11	35%	-0.05	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	2.3	24.5	15.6	25.4	0.8	34.2	129.5
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +31.5%

ATL +3.9%

ATL +19.0%

PHI -4.5%

ATL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	PHI	NBA	ATL	PHI	NBA
this game	16.7	15.4	15.6	103.3	98.9	102.5
season	16.1	15.4		105.3	99.7
opponent	15.5	16.0		102.1	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.5	15.1	17.2	19.3	16.7
PHI	18.8	13.7	16.2	13.4	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Smith	84	84	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.31	8	-3	11	16.9	14.0	2.93	15.5	14.2	1.31
Dikembe Mutombo	68	69	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.17	11	-6	17	18.1	12.5	5.54	16.6	11.4	5.21
Tyrone Corbin	60	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-5	15	15.3	19.6	-4.35	16.4	13.2	3.19
Christian Laettner	69	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	0	5	15.5	20.9	-5.44	15.5	15.2	0.32
Mookie Blaylock	82	81	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	3	-1	16.6	18.1	-1.53	15.4	15.4	0.07
Alan Henderson	40	39	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	8	-11	15.7	17.5	-1.82	13.2	17.2	-4.07
Ed Gray	14	13	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.05	0	5	-5	16.4	16.8	-0.45	14.9	15.5	-0.60
Chucky Brown	33	30	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.24	-8	13	-21	20.5	14.6	5.88	13.5	16.4	-2.92

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Davis	34	33	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.23	6	-11	17	12.9	17.0	-4.09	15.9	17.2	-1.35
Doug Overton	9	8	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-2	-1	14.3	15.6	-1.23	19.0	16.5	2.49
Terry Cummings	8	7	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-2	-1	11.0	15.9	-4.88	7.3	17.5	-10.24
Scott Williams	24	22	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.01	-3	-2	-1	13.6	16.1	-2.48	19.3	15.9	3.42
Rex Walters	5	7	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.04	-5	0	-5	15.6	15.4	0.17	14.7	16.9	-2.19
Tim Thomas	35	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.37	6	-11	17	14.1	16.3	-2.23	18.4	15.5	2.83
Eric Montross	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	3	-11	19.0	13.9	5.17	16.4	16.9	-0.52
Clar. Weatherspoon	54	56	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.38	6	-11	17	14.3	17.2	-2.90	18.1	14.5	3.59
Jim Jackson	66	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-2	-1	15.6	15.0	0.65	15.8	19.0	-3.19
Allen Iverson	75	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.42	3	-8	11	15.6	14.8	0.77	16.5	18.1	-1.58
Derrick Coleman	63	65	-0.39	-0.12	-0.27	-0.30	-3	-2	-1	16.4	13.2	3.23	16.5	17.3	-0.81
Jerry Stackhouse	45	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.11	-18	13	-31	17.8	13.0	4.78	16.7	16.8	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.28,0.24,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.09,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, DEN 74	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.2,0.21,0.24,0.28,0.39,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.11,0.15,0.16,0.17,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0	96.2%
DAL 105, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
PHX 98, SAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%