NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	4.1 [959]		MVP	Anthony Goldwire (DEN): +10.8%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	1.1 [814]		LVP	Johnny Newman (DEN): -11.4%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.02	16	63%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Shawn Bradley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	6	100%	0.03
Erick Strickland	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.10	12	43%	0.05	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Martin Muursepp	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.01	0.06	8	76%	0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.02
Eric Riley	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.02	-0.03	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bubba Wells	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	59%	0.03	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.01
Hubert Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	7	80%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
A.C. Green	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.01
Khalid Reeves	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.01	-0.01	12	71%	0.11	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.03	6	80%	0.05	2	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	0.00	0.05	17	53%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	29%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	0.04	12	62%	0.02	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	4	30%	-0.05	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.04	0.04	16	49%	-0.08	1	-0.03	9	56%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.7	22.4	16.6	24.4	2.4	33.3	124.0
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +26.6%

DAL +12.9%

DEN -3.7%

DAL +10.9%

DAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	17.2	15.6	118.0	108.0	102.5
season	15.8	16.2		98.3	96.7
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.5	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.0	15.0	16.3	16.6	15.5
DEN	19.6	17.7	18.0	14.0	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
A.C. Green	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.07	15	-4	19	15.7	14.9	0.78	17.6	15.9	1.62
Martin Muursepp	65	64	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.00	14	-3	17	15.7	15.0	0.69	18.4	14.0	4.47
Michael Finley	50	48	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.02	11	0	11	15.5	15.5	0.03	18.3	15.9	2.44
Hubert Davis	55	54	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.16	5	6	-1	14.7	16.8	-2.04	15.5	20.1	-4.59
Eric Riley	57	54	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.28	-1	12	-13	15.9	14.8	1.03	16.5	18.4	-1.91
Khalid Reeves	34	33	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.02	6	5	1	16.8	14.7	2.04	20.1	15.5	4.59
Erick Strickland	48	46	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.17	0	11	-11	15.1	16.0	-0.87	15.4	19.3	-3.97
Shawn Bradley	27	27	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	6	-1	14.6	15.9	-1.36	18.3	16.8	1.48
Bubba Wells	39	39	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.16	0	11	-11	15.5	15.5	-0.03	15.9	18.3	-2.44

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bryant Stith	8	8	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-11	11	22.2	16.7	5.52	16.0	15.5	0.54
Bobby Jackson	39	40	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	-2	-7	17.9	16.7	1.24	15.1	15.8	-0.74
Tony Battie	37	37	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	0.02	-10	-1	-9	18.8	16.1	2.78	14.5	16.2	-1.79
Dean Garrett	38	40	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.02	-9	-2	-7	18.8	16.0	2.75	16.0	15.1	0.99
Anthony Goldwire	53	55	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-9	7	15.5	19.9	-4.43	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Johnny Newman	66	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-8	5	16.5	19.5	-2.95	15.7	14.8	0.91
Cory Alexander	56	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.08	-8	-3	-5	16.9	17.8	-0.88	15.6	15.3	0.30
Danny Fortson	64	66	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-5	-1	17.0	18.0	-1.09	15.5	15.6	-0.14
LaPhonso Ellis	74	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.19	-8	-3	-5	17.1	18.0	-0.89	15.8	14.0	1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 97, CLE 83	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.29,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
PHX 98, SAC 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.2,0.27,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
SAS 110, MEM 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%