NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	110		Excitement	4.4 [938]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +15.7%
Memphis Grizzlies	96		Comeback	1.2 [1191]		LVP	Chucky Atkins (MEM): -5.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.25	0.03	0.12	15	87%	0.23	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.04
Robert Horry	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.02	-0.01	9	82%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.01
Bruce Bowen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	58%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Finley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	67%	0.10	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.03
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	8	31%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jackie Butler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.04	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	13	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.13	0.04	0.03	16	63%	0.13	1	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	8	65%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Eddie Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dahntay Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakim Warrick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tarence Kinsey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alexander Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	6	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	13	47%	0.02	3	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	10	41%	-0.02	3	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	28.7	15.5	30.6	2.3	25.3	130.0
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.4%

SAS +9.5%

SAS +15.6%

MEM -12.9%

SAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MEM	NBA	SAS	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	13.8	15.4	115.8	101.1	104.5
season	16.2	15.1		107.5	105.1
opponent	15.1	15.4		110.1	98.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.1	15.8	16.1	18.0	16.5
MEM	15.9	13.0	13.9	12.5	13.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	36	37	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-1	16	16.1	16.7	-0.66	14.2	13.6	0.60
Bruce Bowen	71	73	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.04	16	-2	18	16.9	15.4	1.50	14.3	12.2	2.13
Manu Ginobili	55	57	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.20	21	-7	28	14.9	18.7	-3.85	14.3	13.1	1.19
Jacque Vaughn	51	48	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	4	6	16.7	16.2	0.46	12.7	14.9	-2.21
Tim Duncan	62	64	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.01	11	3	8	16.3	16.8	-0.45	14.1	13.2	0.93
Fabricio Oberto	57	56	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.08	11	3	8	15.7	17.7	-2.03	14.0	13.6	0.39
Michael Finley	42	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.23	-1	15	-16	17.4	15.8	1.59	12.6	14.7	-2.02
Beno Udrih	44	47	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.03	4	10	-6	16.2	16.7	-0.46	14.9	12.7	2.21
Jackie Butler	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	18	-22	21.0	16.3	4.65	12.0	13.9	-1.86
Matt Bonner	32	31	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.12	-5	19	-24	18.3	15.6	2.69	12.6	14.4	-1.84
Brent Barry	22	20	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.18	-8	22	-30	17.6	16.2	1.49	13.0	14.0	-1.04

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damon Stoudamire	41	42	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.09	1	-15	16	14.2	13.5	0.74	16.3	16.6	-0.33
Dahntay Jones	15	16	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-12	10	13.2	13.9	-0.74	15.6	16.7	-1.05
Eddie Jones	5	4	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	0.04	-4	-10	6	16.6	13.7	2.93	14.5	16.6	-2.08
Alexander Johnson	46	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-11	8	14.9	12.8	2.12	16.4	16.5	-0.10
Rudy Gay	61	61	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-8	2	13.4	14.6	-1.19	16.7	16.2	0.45
Pau Gasol	63	64	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-11	8	13.4	14.6	-1.21	16.0	17.5	-1.42
Tarence Kinsey	27	28	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.15	-5	-9	4	14.5	13.6	0.92	16.3	16.6	-0.30
Hakim Warrick	30	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	-3	-8	13.4	14.0	-0.66	16.5	16.5	0.03
Stromile Swift	51	52	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.06	-11	-3	-8	13.6	14.1	-0.46	17.1	15.8	1.33
Mike Miller	82	81	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.10	-11	-3	-8	13.9	13.5	0.33	16.7	15.2	1.50
Chucky Atkins	54	53	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.00	-15	1	-16	13.5	14.2	-0.74	16.6	16.3	0.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.23,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, DEN 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.19,0.13,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
SAS 103, NJN 89	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.32,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.08,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%
MIN 93, WAS 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.17,0.18,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%