NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	8.0 [238]		MVP	Shawn Bradley (DAL): +5.3%
Dallas Mavericks	95		Comeback	1.9 [277]		LVP	Michael Finley (DAL): -25.9%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenny Smith	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	7	72%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	13	62%	0.13	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.04
Antonio McDyess	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.00	18	51%	0.07	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Brooks Thompson	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tom Hammonds	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	19	56%	0.12	4	-0.15	5	80%	0.02
Anthony Goldwire	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.08	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.02	17	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shawn Bradley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	18	62%	0.10	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.09
Stacey King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Martin Muursepp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
A.C. Green	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	5	27%	-0.05	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.01	-0.09	0.01	17	47%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	8	25%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	10	45%	0.01	4	-0.17	2	100%	0.03
Michael Finley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.29,-0.32,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.16	0.04	22	44%	-0.23	1	-0.03	8	62%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.8	1.5	20.4	15.8	20.3	2.6	34.8	118.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +55.3%

DEN +13.9%

DAL -3.5%

DAL -15.1%

DAL -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	DAL	NBA	DEN	DAL	NBA
this game	14.1	14.8	15.6	101.0	95.0	104.4
season	15.2	15.9		102.3	99.1
opponent	15.7	15.3		105.5	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.1	16.5	15.0	12.3	14.1
DAL	15.6	14.8	13.8	15.0	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenny Smith	54	53	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.41	7	-2	9	13.7	14.6	-0.92	14.7	14.9	-0.14
Dale Ellis	99	100	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.1	0.0	14.14	14.8	0.0	14.80
Tom Hammonds	94	95	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.38	4	1	3	14.1	15.4	-1.33	14.5	20.2	-5.68
Ervin Johnson	95	96	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	0	5	14.0	17.7	-3.76	14.8	14.0	0.83
Antonio McDyess	84	85	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	-1	7	14.0	14.7	-0.62	14.8	15.1	-0.31
Brooks Thompson	24	24	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.20	0	5	-5	15.3	13.8	1.57	16.0	14.4	1.52
Anthony Goldwire	45	47	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	-0.06	-2	7	-9	14.6	13.7	0.92	14.9	14.7	0.14

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey King	23	23	0.05	-0.55	0.60	0.05	0	-5	5	14.7	14.8	-0.19	13.1	14.4	-1.32
Erick Strickland	27	30	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-4	3	14.2	15.0	-0.79	13.0	14.6	-1.59
Derek Harper	35	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-5	5	15.9	14.2	1.76	15.8	13.2	2.52
A.C. Green	82	79	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.20	0	-5	5	14.7	15.1	-0.31	14.2	13.8	0.43
Martin Muursepp	22	22	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.13	-7	2	-9	15.1	14.7	0.43	13.1	14.4	-1.29
Sasha Danilovic	74	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.30	-2	-3	1	14.9	14.6	0.30	14.3	13.9	0.40
Robert Pack	65	64	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	0	-5	14.2	15.9	-1.76	13.2	15.8	-2.52
Michael Finley	85	84	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	-1	-3	14.8	14.6	0.24	14.2	13.5	0.72
Shawn Bradley	87	87	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.42	-6	1	-7	14.9	14.2	0.65	14.8	9.6	5.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.33,0.32,0.41,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.22,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, DET 83	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.28,0.42,0.3,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.17,0.02,0	93.1%
MEM 101, MIN 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.44,0.6,0.71,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.33,0.23,0.21,0.35,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.09,0	93.1%
PHX 99, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.16,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.03,0,0	92.9%