NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	106		Excitement	2.9 [1151]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +8.7%
Sacramento Kings	120		Comeback	1.0 [1198]		LVP	Will Perdue (SAS): -12.3%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vinny Del Negro	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.18	0.00	0.16	18	74%	0.03	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.09	0.00	0.10	11	73%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Charles Smith	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.01	13	53%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jamie Feick	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.11	-0.00	-0.05	4	14%	-0.07	0	0.00	6	33%	-0.02
Cory Alexander	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.15	0.00	-0.08	12	27%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.00
Carl Herrera	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.00	0.03	13	53%	-0.04	3	-0.04	6	83%	0.00
Greg Anderson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.00	-0.03	9	22%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.15	0.00	-0.02	12	29%	-0.09	2	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.16	0.00	0.07	20	73%	0.12	3	-0.03	5	100%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.07	0.00	0.02	6	83%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	8	81%	0.05	2	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	14	61%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	10	67%	0.03	4	-0.02	10	80%	-0.01
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	4	54%	0.02	1	-0.01	5	60%	-0.01
Olden Polynice	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	8	47%	0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.01
Jeff Grayer	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Salvadori	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Hurley	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.10	0.00	-0.08	6	50%	0.02	5	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	26.0	16.5	25.3	1.8	25.3	121.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +57.9%

SAS -3.2%

SAS -10.5%

SAC +5.0%

SAC +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	SAC	NBA	SAS	SAC	NBA
this game	16.1	14.0	15.6	110.4	126.3	104.4
season	16.8	15.4		100.8	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.4		106.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.5	17.6	16.0	14.6	16.1
SAC	12.3	12.4	17.6	14.2	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Avery Johnson	60	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-14	14	16.3	15.9	0.41	14.5	13.2	1.27
Carl Herrera	48	50	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.08	-5	-9	4	17.1	15.2	1.96	14.2	13.8	0.42
Jamie Feick	29	26	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.03	-7	-7	0	16.1	16.2	-0.06	13.8	14.1	-0.21
Vernon Maxwell	44	45	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.03	-9	-5	-4	15.3	16.8	-1.49	12.6	15.2	-2.58
Vinny Del Negro	73	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.28	1	-15	16	16.2	15.9	0.36	14.7	12.0	2.68
Charles Smith	47	47	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-1	-12	16.7	15.6	1.17	14.5	13.5	0.97
Cory Alexander	57	56	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	-2	-10	15.2	17.5	-2.30	13.6	14.6	-1.00
Will Perdue	58	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-8	-6	-2	16.5	15.6	0.94	13.4	14.9	-1.49
Greg Anderson	64	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.08	-17	3	-20	15.8	16.8	-1.05	14.2	13.6	0.61

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bobby Hurley	60	60	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	3	8	14.3	13.5	0.81	15.5	17.2	-1.63
Mitch Richmond	69	69	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.06	9	5	4	14.4	12.9	1.48	15.7	17.4	-1.76
Michael Smith	46	47	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.10	14	0	14	13.6	14.4	-0.84	15.8	16.5	-0.70
Brian Grant	74	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.23	2	12	-10	14.3	13.0	1.28	16.9	13.9	2.99
Corliss Williamson	60	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.06	7	7	0	13.3	15.2	-1.95	14.9	18.4	-3.50
Billy Owens	41	42	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.04	7	7	0	15.4	12.9	2.53	17.2	15.4	1.81
Olden Polynice	46	46	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.23	-1	15	-16	14.5	13.5	0.97	17.9	14.5	3.35
Kevin Salvadori	12	13	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.16	12	2	10	11.7	14.3	-2.58	14.1	16.5	-2.39
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	49	49	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.12	2	12	-10	13.3	14.7	-1.39	16.1	16.2	-0.17
Tyus Edney	14	15	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.07	8	6	2	12.4	14.3	-1.93	18.5	15.7	2.75
Jeff Grayer	4	5	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	15	-16	13.2	14.0	-0.78	13.4	16.3	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.69,0.75,0.71,0.64,0.78,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.97,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 109, WAS 118	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
SAS 100, GSW 136	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.2%
CLE 89, ATL 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.92,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.1%