NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	105		Excitement	5.3 [744]		MVP	Rex Chapman (PHX): +20.9%
Golden State Warriors	97		Comeback	2.2 [935]		LVP	Donyell Marshall (GSW): -16.9%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rex Chapman	0.21	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.13	0.06	-0.02	17	68%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Johnson	0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.09	-0.00	0.02	13	74%	0.13	3	-0.07	9	100%	0.04
Hot Rod Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.03	4	80%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Danny Manning	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	16	53%	0.07	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Wesley Person	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.04	8	31%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horacio Llamas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	13	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Wayman Tisdale	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	12	35%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Burrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	7	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Melvin Booker	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	14	57%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	58%	0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Ray Owes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.01	9	56%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	4	38%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.02	-0.02	15	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.03
Latrell Sprewell	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	0.04	10	56%	-0.02	3	-0.08	5	40%	-0.03
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	13	41%	-0.08	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	24.8	13.8	25.0	1.8	30.2	122.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHX +37.9%

PHX +13.5%

GSW -17.3%

PHX +15.0%

PHX +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	GSW	NBA	PHX	GSW	NBA
this game	14.1	16.3	15.6	112.9	101.0	104.4
season	14.6	15.0		106.8	104.4
opponent	15.4	15.6		109.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	14.1	13.1	13.8	15.5	14.1
GSW	20.1	15.1	16.8	13.9	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Johnson	93	96	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.27	8	0	8	14.1	0.0	14.14	16.3	0.0	16.30
Jason Kidd	91	95	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.23	8	0	8	14.2	13.0	1.16	16.3	20.0	-3.74
Rex Chapman	72	75	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	2	4	15.0	11.2	3.75	16.3	16.1	0.20
Wayman Tisdale	45	48	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.08	10	-2	12	14.2	14.0	0.20	17.7	14.9	2.73
Hot Rod Williams	61	66	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.18	6	2	4	13.6	15.1	-1.50	17.5	13.8	3.69
Horacio Llamas	14	13	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	1	6	12.0	14.5	-2.52	14.1	16.7	-2.57
Wesley Person	40	38	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.17	-2	10	-12	14.0	14.2	-0.25	15.4	16.9	-1.50
Danny Manning	49	49	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.20	-3	11	-14	14.1	14.2	-0.04	14.7	18.0	-3.24

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Mullin	64	62	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.25	4	-12	16	14.8	19.3	-4.52	14.2	14.0	0.21
Ray Owes	40	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-5	2	14.4	17.6	-3.22	15.0	13.6	1.41
Scott Burrell	55	53	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.20	0	-8	8	14.3	19.0	-4.79	14.7	13.4	1.30
Joe Smith	60	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.17	-2	-6	4	17.4	14.5	2.84	13.9	14.5	-0.59
Donyell Marshall	45	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.08	-6	-2	-4	18.6	14.3	4.28	13.3	14.9	-1.52
Latrell Sprewell	52	52	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.09	-7	-1	-6	18.3	13.9	4.46	13.7	14.8	-1.10
Andrew DeClercq	44	44	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.15	-6	-2	-4	14.2	18.0	-3.79	14.2	14.1	0.08
Felton Spencer	35	34	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.04	-11	3	-14	19.0	14.7	4.29	14.4	14.0	0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.05,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, VAN 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.65,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.27,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0,0	94.9%
DAL 117, GSW 100	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.38,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.24,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
MEM 100, MIN 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.23,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,0,0,0	94.6%