NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	86		Excitement	7.2 [375]		MVP	Steve Kerr (CHI): +16.4%
Indiana Pacers	80		Comeback	2.9 [597]		LVP	Rik Smits (IND): -33.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16	0.10	0.06	0.00	5	110%	0.20	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.00	0.00	12	63%	0.06	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.01
Dickey Simpkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Parish	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ron Harper	-0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.04	0.04	7	44%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.05
Jason Caffey	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	8	58%	-0.02	3	-0.09	8	75%	-0.02
Bison Dele	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	0.00	6	29%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Michael Jordan	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.01	19	50%	0.06	6	-0.18	8	87%	0.06
Luc Longley	-0.19	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.08	-0.00	10	27%	-0.14	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	4	94%	0.13	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.03
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.01	0.03	6	87%	0.10	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
Fred Hoiberg	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.04	0.00	4	75%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Derrick McKey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.06	0.01	9	22%	-0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.07	0.00	15	39%	-0.04	4	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Rik Smits	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.34,-0.34	-0.34	-0.18	-0.19	-0.04	19	31%	-0.18	3	-0.16	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	25.6	16.5	25.3	2.7	35.2	129.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +12.4%

CHI +2.3%

CHI +14.8%

CHI +18.9%

CHI +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	IND	NBA	CHI	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	16.4	15.6	96.6	90.9	104.4
season	15.5	15.3		110.5	103.6
opponent	16.3	16.1		101.9	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.7	16.7	16.5	16.9	16.2
IND	16.0	17.6	15.5	16.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Kerr	47	48	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.31	9	-3	12	17.1	15.1	2.03	16.5	16.2	0.23
Dickey Simpkins	17	16	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-6	18	15.2	16.4	-1.15	16.8	16.3	0.53
Bison Dele	32	32	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.16	9	-3	12	15.7	16.4	-0.75	15.7	16.7	-1.03
Michael Jordan	75	74	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.31	3	3	0	16.5	14.4	2.15	16.6	15.1	1.55
Scottie Pippen	69	68	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	2	2	15.7	17.8	-2.10	16.1	17.1	-1.00
Jud Buechler	26	26	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.17	3	3	0	17.2	15.7	1.45	16.2	16.5	-0.26
Luc Longley	47	45	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.09	1	5	-4	14.9	17.5	-2.61	16.4	16.3	0.10
Jason Caffey	61	62	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	6	-6	16.3	15.8	0.56	16.5	16.1	0.37
Ron Harper	42	40	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.02	0	6	-6	15.0	17.2	-2.17	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Randy Brown	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	7	-8	14.1	16.4	-2.25	16.2	16.4	-0.14
Robert Parish	21	21	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.16	-10	16	-26	19.9	15.0	4.89	16.6	16.3	0.32

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Fred Hoiberg	30	31	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.12	3	-9	12	14.0	17.6	-3.65	15.8	16.3	-0.51
Derrick McKey	46	46	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.04	-1	-5	4	17.2	15.4	1.81	16.8	15.5	1.27
Travis Best	38	37	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.12	-4	-2	-2	17.0	15.9	1.05	15.8	16.4	-0.61
Jalen Rose	31	32	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.21	-2	-4	2	16.4	16.4	-0.03	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Dale Davis	71	71	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.28	0	-6	6	15.9	18.3	-2.38	16.1	16.4	-0.35
Mark Jackson	52	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.16	-5	-1	-4	15.9	17.0	-1.06	16.0	16.5	-0.52
Antonio Davis	36	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.17	-5	-1	-4	16.0	16.6	-0.63	16.1	16.2	-0.05
Rik Smits	69	71	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.21	-7	1	-8	17.0	13.9	3.10	16.3	15.8	0.42
Reggie Miller	67	67	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.29	-9	3	-12	16.9	14.8	2.06	16.3	15.8	0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.25,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.21,0.22,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 100, BOS 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.71,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.65,0.65,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.33,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.26,0.14,0.15,0.06,0.02,0	93.4%
DET 120, ATL 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.64,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	92.6%
NJN 95, CHA 91	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.63,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.16,0.31,0.15,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.08,0	92.0%