NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	93		Excitement	5.4 [709]		MVP	Dominique Wilkins (SAS): +12.7%
San Antonio Spurs	97		Comeback	1.0 [294]		LVP	Cory Alexander (SAS): -14.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Horace Grant	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.02	10	71%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Nick Anderson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	12	58%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Rony Seikaly	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.01	0.03	8	85%	0.09	4	-0.07	10	80%	0.00
Anfernee Hardaway	0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,0.02,0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.03	19	45%	0.08	4	-0.08	4	75%	-0.03
Darrell Armstrong	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Scott	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.02	0.02	9	52%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	-0.01
Derek Strong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wilkins	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.13	0.13	-0.03	0.12	-0.03	11	54%	0.18	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Charles Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	70%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Monty Williams	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.06	0.02	13	71%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Greg Anderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.02	-0.00	10	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Perdue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	10	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	3	33%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.09,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	13	57%	-0.00	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	5	33%	-0.06	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.5	23.5	15.6	26.0	1.8	34.3	126.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +7.6%

SAS +6.0%

SAS +36.8%

SAS +1.5%

ORL -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.9	16.1	15.6	104.5	106.6	104.4
season	16.4	16.8		102.9	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		109.4	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.9	15.2	16.9	15.4	15.9
SAS	14.8	16.1	15.8	18.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	9	10	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-3	2	16.0	15.8	0.16	16.7	16.1	0.63
Brian Shaw	27	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-3	2	14.8	16.3	-1.54	16.3	16.1	0.21
Gerald Wilkins	38	39	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.17	-1	-3	2	14.9	16.6	-1.67	15.7	16.5	-0.74
Derek Strong	35	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-4	4	15.7	15.9	-0.18	15.1	16.8	-1.71
Dennis Scott	50	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.17	-3	-1	-2	16.6	14.9	1.75	16.6	15.5	1.10
Nick Anderson	66	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-8	12	16.2	14.9	1.33	16.2	16.0	0.14
Rony Seikaly	67	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-3	2	15.7	16.2	-0.44	16.7	14.3	2.40
Horace Grant	76	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.30	-7	3	-10	16.0	15.0	1.00	16.1	16.5	-0.37
Anfernee Hardaway	77	78	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.28	-10	6	-16	15.9	15.6	0.31	15.9	17.7	-1.81

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monty Williams	56	56	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.18	16	-12	28	16.0	16.3	-0.28	16.7	14.5	2.22
Carl Herrera	56	57	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.12	8	-4	12	15.3	17.5	-2.18	16.7	14.3	2.46
Greg Anderson	31	33	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-9	22	15.3	16.6	-1.29	18.0	14.6	3.41
Cory Alexander	55	52	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	9	-14	16.3	16.0	0.28	14.6	17.6	-3.07
Vernon Maxwell	52	51	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.35	-3	7	-10	16.1	16.2	-0.02	14.6	17.5	-2.87
Vinny Del Negro	40	38	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.06	7	-3	10	15.9	16.3	-0.34	17.5	14.6	2.87
Avery Johnson	36	37	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.03	9	-5	14	16.0	16.3	-0.28	17.6	14.6	3.07
Charles Smith	27	25	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	4	-4	16.6	16.0	0.64	15.2	16.1	-0.97
Will Perdue	40	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.24	-5	9	-14	17.2	15.3	1.93	14.4	16.9	-2.50
Dominique Wilkins	49	46	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.49	-17	21	-38	16.9	15.3	1.59	14.3	17.6	-3.30
Jamie Feick	13	12	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.03	-3	7	-10	15.8	16.2	-0.35	14.0	16.1	-2.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.75,0.76,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.82,0.81,0.83,0.82,0.82,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.93,0.87,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.85,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.99,0.94,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 104, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.68,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.82,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.83,0.83,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,1	94.6%
SAC 119, BOS 128	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.72,0.76,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.87,0.83,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.86,0.85,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.97,1,1	94.6%
DET 94, NYK 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%