NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	113		Excitement	4.5 [892]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +12.9%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	1.5 [712]		LVP	Dale Ellis (DEN): -13.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.01	0.04	18	79%	0.20	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Byron Scott	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.02	-0.01	6	75%	0.10	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Elden Campbell	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	-0.01	0.01	16	60%	0.06	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Eddie Jones	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	10	59%	0.07	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Travis Knight	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
George McCloud	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.01	0.04	1	150%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Sean Rooks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	4	0%	-0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	7	47%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brooks Thompson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	-0.05	9	78%	0.16	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	-0.01	-0.02	19	60%	0.12	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.01
George Zidek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Goldwire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.04	3	30%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Tom Hammonds	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	20	45%	-0.08	2	-0.05	13	46%	-0.07
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	9	30%	-0.06	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.1	2.5	28.7	15.8	28.4	2.8	24.3	124.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +40.4%

LAL +3.0%

DEN -2.8%

LAL +5.3%

LAL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	DEN	NBA	LAL	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	14.4	15.6	115.3	95.9	104.4
season	15.3	15.2		105.8	102.3
opponent	15.3	15.7		108.8	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	12.2	14.3	15.0	19.5	15.0
DEN	14.0	13.4	15.7	14.8	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Byron Scott	35	34	0.51	-0.01	0.53	-0.16	23	-4	27	15.3	14.8	0.52	15.4	13.9	1.58
Travis Knight	34	34	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.07	14	5	9	14.1	15.5	-1.41	14.3	14.5	-0.22
Nick Van Exel	69	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.04	12	7	5	15.4	13.9	1.54	14.5	14.3	0.16
Elden Campbell	66	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	13	-7	13.7	17.5	-3.79	14.6	14.1	0.47
Sean Rooks	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.19	13	6	7	17.5	13.7	3.79	14.1	14.6	-0.47
Derek Fisher	29	30	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	12	-5	13.9	15.4	-1.54	14.3	14.5	-0.16
Eddie Jones	55	58	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.02	5	14	-9	14.1	16.1	-1.94	15.5	12.9	2.59
Corie Blount	64	64	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.01	5	14	-9	15.5	14.1	1.41	14.5	14.3	0.22
Kobe Bryant	23	22	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.05	6	13	-7	15.3	14.9	0.42	10.4	15.6	-5.16
Jerome Kersey	69	69	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.05	2	17	-15	15.2	14.4	0.80	14.4	14.5	-0.15
George McCloud	14	13	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	17	-15	15.8	14.8	0.94	14.0	14.5	-0.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
George Zidek	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	9.7	14.6	-4.86	16.0	14.9	1.08
Anthony Goldwire	13	13	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-17	15	14.2	14.4	-0.20	19.5	14.3	5.17
Jerome Allen	16	16	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.05	-4	-15	11	10.4	15.2	-4.82	15.9	14.8	1.14
Brooks Thompson	63	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.06	-10	-9	-1	14.4	14.5	-0.08	14.9	15.1	-0.12
Kenny Smith	40	39	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.09	-7	-12	5	14.8	14.2	0.62	13.9	15.7	-1.84
Ervin Johnson	79	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.06	-14	-5	-9	14.9	12.3	2.60	15.4	13.2	2.26
Tom Hammonds	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.05	-11	-8	-3	14.0	14.8	-0.83	13.9	16.1	-2.12
LaPhonso Ellis	77	78	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	-5	-9	15.2	11.4	3.79	15.1	14.3	0.79
Antonio McDyess	79	77	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.13	-18	-1	-17	14.0	16.0	-1.97	15.1	14.4	0.70
Dale Ellis	69	69	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.02	-15	-4	-11	14.7	13.7	1.02	14.4	16.3	-1.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.16,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.1,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 125, TOR 121	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.35,0.32,0.3,0.27,0.2,0.18,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.03,0,0	95.9%
NYK 94, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.33,0.24,0.25,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%
SEA 104, LAC 92	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.31,0.23,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.16,0.21,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.13,0.07,0.09,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%