NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	9.0 [119]		MVP	Anfernee Hardaway (ORL): +65.4%
Houston Rockets	95		Comeback	5.4 [124]		LVP	Derek Strong (ORL): -23.1%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anfernee Hardaway	0.65	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.65	0.15	0.51	0.01	20	66%	0.65	0	0.00	7	100%	0.04
Dennis Scott	0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.01	10	58%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Horace Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.02	12	62%	0.07	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Gerald Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.06	-0.01	16	54%	0.06	2	-0.10	3	67%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	7	36%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Schayes	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	2	17%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Shaw	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.02	7	14%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Strong	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.07	-0.16	0.00	5	47%	-0.16	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.01

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.01,-0.06,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	-0.06	-0.01	13	57%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.08
Kevin Willis	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	20	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Othella Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.04	-0.04	0.08	-0.12	-0.00	9	72%	0.04	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sam Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Matt Maloney	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	0.02	11	50%	-0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bullard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.11,0,-0.1	-0.10	0.07	-0.16	0.01	24	62%	0.01	3	-0.11	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.4	27.2	17.7	24.3	2.6	37.0	137.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +56.8%

ORL +18.4%

HOU -28.5%

ORL +5.1%

HOU -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	HOU	NBA	ORL	HOU	NBA
this game	15.9	15.9	15.6	106.7	104.4	104.4
season	16.4	15.5		102.9	107.2
opponent	15.4	15.5		103.0	103.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.6	16.2	15.6	18.6	15.9
HOU	15.7	15.8	15.7	16.6	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Strong	57	57	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.36	12	-11	23	16.1	15.6	0.45	15.8	16.2	-0.39
Gerald Wilkins	64	64	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.56	4	-3	7	15.9	15.9	-0.05	17.1	13.2	3.86
Anfernee Hardaway	77	76	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.63	1	0	1	15.7	17.2	-1.57	15.8	16.8	-1.04
Dennis Scott	71	72	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-5	11	15.4	17.7	-2.34	15.7	16.6	-0.88
Horace Grant	83	83	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.54	-2	3	-5	16.0	14.3	1.74	16.0	14.9	1.16
Dan Schayes	34	36	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	5	-9	15.2	16.3	-1.05	16.4	15.6	0.75
Brian Shaw	47	49	-0.23	0.73	-0.95	-0.05	-6	7	-13	16.6	15.1	1.57	14.5	17.6	-3.04
Darrell Armstrong	17	18	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	-0.05	-6	7	-13	17.1	15.6	1.44	16.2	15.9	0.36

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Livingston	21	19	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.22	-11	10	-21	16.2	15.9	0.33	15.3	16.1	-0.79
Othella Harrington	29	29	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.01	-4	3	-7	14.8	16.5	-1.67	15.8	15.9	-0.14
Mario Elie	72	71	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.61	14	-15	29	15.9	15.9	-0.02	16.7	12.9	3.73
Matt Bullard	30	31	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.17	-4	3	-7	18.1	14.9	3.23	14.2	16.8	-2.54
Sam Mack	19	19	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.14	-15	14	-29	15.9	15.9	0.02	12.9	16.7	-3.73
Kevin Willis	87	85	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.27	-2	1	-3	15.9	17.7	-1.90	15.6	20.0	-4.35
Eddie Johnson	63	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.50	5	-6	11	14.9	18.3	-3.40	16.4	14.7	1.72
Matt Maloney	70	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.69	10	-11	21	15.9	16.2	-0.33	16.1	15.3	0.79
Hakeem Olajuwon	64	64	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-3	5	16.6	14.4	2.17	16.5	14.3	2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.57,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 89, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.21,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.27,0.37,0.42,0.29,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.19,0.2,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.62,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.61,0.79,0.68,0.27,0	90.7%
HOU 112, SAS 106	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.76,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.84,0	89.6%
CHI 93, UTA 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.27,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.67,0.58,0.69,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.72,0.43,0.28,0	89.5%