NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	112		Excitement	9.7 [89]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +30.1%
San Antonio Spurs	106		Comeback	8.3 [111]		LVP	Aaron Brooks (HOU): -22.9%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.3	0.12	0.18	-0.01	19	61%	0.44	3	-0.14	13	62%	-0.12
Patrick Beverley	0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2	0.05	0.17	0.01	10	55%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	6	65%	0.13	2	-0.07	8	62%	-0.06
Terrence Jones	0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.00	10	48%	0.12	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.02
Omri Casspi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	8	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.04	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Chandler Parsons	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.08	0.03	-0.10	0.00	21	54%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	8	17%	-0.13	4	-0.10	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.17,0.17,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.29	0.29	0.10	0.17	-0.02	13	69%	0.31	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.06,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.18	-0.00	13	65%	0.30	2	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Boris Diaw	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.06	0.00	9	50%	0.13	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,0.01,0.12,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.02	0.05	27	48%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	50%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.06	0.00	5	60%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.00	3	60%	0.06	3	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	8	37%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	8	44%	-0.04	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.0	27.1	15.5	24.5	2.5	35.5	128.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS -1.2%

HOU +11.0%

HOU +49.0%

SAS -10.5%

HOU +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	13.3	13.9	15.1	105.7	100.0	105.2
season	14.3	15.0		109.5	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.2		101.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.1	15.5	13.1	11.9	13.3
SAS	13.6	14.0	14.6	13.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Jones	68	68	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.48	11	-5	16	13.3	13.3	0.08	13.9	13.8	0.03
Patrick Beverley	80	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.43	11	-5	16	13.3	13.3	0.06	14.1	13.2	0.93
Chandler Parsons	87	89	0.64	-0.14	0.79	0.50	5	1	4	13.2	13.7	-0.45	14.2	12.2	1.93
Dwight Howard	75	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.48	5	1	4	13.5	12.8	0.67	13.8	14.0	-0.15
James Harden	82	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.35	3	3	0	13.8	11.7	2.02	13.5	15.0	-1.48
Omer Asik	31	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.16	1	5	-4	12.8	13.5	-0.67	14.0	13.8	0.15
Aaron Brooks	37	37	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.14	0	6	-6	12.7	13.6	-0.93	13.4	14.1	-0.70
Francisco Garcia	32	30	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	-0.16	-1	7	-8	13.0	13.4	-0.40	13.8	13.9	-0.08
Omri Casspi	38	38	-0.31	0.81	-1.11	-0.16	-5	11	-16	13.3	13.3	-0.08	13.8	13.9	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tiago Splitter	37	37	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.09	0	-6	6	13.2	14.2	-1.03	13.6	13.2	0.44
Patty Mills	24	23	0.05	-0.55	0.61	0.20	-5	-1	-4	12.4	14.3	-1.86	13.5	13.3	0.27
Boris Diaw	23	24	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.07	3	-9	12	12.5	14.2	-1.71	15.8	12.6	3.26
Danny Green	54	55	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.10	-8	2	-10	14.0	13.7	0.29	13.3	13.3	-0.04
Manu Ginobili	63	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-12	18	13.1	15.0	-1.96	13.0	13.7	-0.69
Marco Belinelli	62	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	3	-12	14.4	13.2	1.20	12.5	14.4	-1.93
Kawhi Leonard	60	61	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.23	-6	0	-6	13.8	13.9	-0.10	14.9	11.2	3.63
Matt Bonner	53	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.27	-6	0	-6	15.2	12.6	2.58	11.2	15.3	-4.15
Tony Parker	82	83	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.53	-1	-5	4	14.3	12.4	1.86	13.3	13.5	-0.27
Tim Duncan	72	72	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.44	-4	-2	-2	13.9	13.8	0.05	13.5	12.9	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.21,0.12,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.23,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.28,0.31,0.4,0.45,0.38,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.76,0.64,0.6,0.73,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.84,0
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 96, HOU 95	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.48,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.34,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.18,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.73,0.79,0.8,0.73,0.55,0.55,0.43,0.57,0	89.6%
HOU 112, NJN 106	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.29,0.35,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.29,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.28,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.62,0.73,0.63,0.65,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.55,0.42,0	87.4%
POR 97, DET 93	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.28,0.27,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.3,0.26,0.43,0.47,0.37,0.31,0.53,0.54,0.48,0.29,0.33,0.73,0	87.2%