NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	88		Excitement	7.8 [269]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (DET): +38.0%
Utah Jazz	95		Comeback	1.8 [816]		LVP	Otis Thorpe (DET): -14.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.38	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.38,0.38	0.06	0.30	-0.02	14	54%	0.38	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Mills	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	-0.02	-0.01	9	72%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	71%	0.07	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Curry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron McKie	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joe Dumars	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.06	-0.07	0.02	15	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Theo Ratliff	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	12%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Grant Hill	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13	-0.04	-0.11	-0.02	21	54%	0.02	3	-0.15	12	75%	0.02
Otis Thorpe	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Karl Malone	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.06,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.13	-0.01	26	61%	0.29	3	-0.10	15	73%	0.03
Chris Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	6	79%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Stockton	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.18,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.07	-0.01	9	67%	0.28	4	-0.21	6	83%	-0.01
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Stephen Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antoine Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	10	48%	0.00	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.04
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	27.4	15.6	33.6	2.0	28.3	132.1
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +12.3%

UTA +15.0%

UTA +26.0%

DET -13.2%

UTA +9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	UTA	NBA	DET	UTA	NBA
this game	19.0	14.8	15.6	103.5	111.8	104.4
season	17.1	15.6		107.6	110.8
opponent	16.0	16.2		102.2	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	18.4	18.7	17.7	21.6	19.0
UTA	15.9	12.6	15.7	15.4	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron McKie	44	46	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.03	5	-12	17	18.0	20.2	-2.22	14.2	15.5	-1.30
Michael Curry	1	1	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-5	3	0.0	19.3	-19.27	5.0	15.0	-9.95
Don Reid	6	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-5	3	10.8	19.7	-8.84	14.8	14.8	-0.04
Otis Thorpe	46	46	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	18.8	19.3	-0.53	14.4	15.3	-0.87
Theo Ratliff	18	18	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.07	-8	1	-9	20.9	18.6	2.34	15.1	14.8	0.35
Grant Long	33	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.25	1	-8	9	20.9	17.9	2.99	16.2	14.0	2.12
Joe Dumars	69	69	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.23	0	-7	7	19.8	15.9	3.83	15.2	13.4	1.80
Terry Mills	66	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-10	13	18.8	19.8	-0.96	14.9	14.6	0.33
Lindsey Hunter	71	71	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.27	-11	4	-15	19.0	19.4	-0.46	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Grant Hill	71	71	-0.83	0.33	-1.16	-0.39	-15	8	-23	19.1	18.9	0.23	14.8	15.1	-0.37

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Hornacek	62	61	0.76	-0.26	1.03	0.29	16	-9	25	15.0	14.5	0.43	19.2	18.6	0.59
Karl Malone	74	75	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.22	16	-9	25	14.6	16.2	-1.55	19.3	17.3	1.98
Bryon Russell	47	46	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.25	13	-6	19	16.6	12.7	3.89	18.7	19.4	-0.72
Greg Ostertag	58	59	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.21	13	-6	19	14.9	14.8	0.08	19.8	17.3	2.51
John Stockton	66	66	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-4	15	14.7	15.5	-0.82	20.0	15.8	4.20
Greg Foster	8	7	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	5	-3	13.6	15.0	-1.34	16.9	19.2	-2.39
Howard Eisley	19	19	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	11	-15	15.5	14.7	0.82	15.8	20.0	-4.20
Chris Morris	38	39	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.04	-6	13	-19	12.7	16.6	-3.89	19.4	18.7	0.72
Stephen Howard	18	19	-0.16	0.66	-0.83	0.07	-8	15	-23	16.1	14.5	1.62	17.5	19.5	-2.03
Antoine Carr	11	10	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.08	-9	16	-25	16.2	14.6	1.55	17.3	19.3	-1.98
Shandon Anderson	24	24	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.03	-9	16	-25	13.9	15.2	-1.28	18.6	19.2	-0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.7,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.4,0.66,0.62,0.45,0.68,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 59, SAS 64	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.82,1	92.3%
ATL 101, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.5,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.51,0.64,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.82,1	92.1%
UTA 99, BOS 103	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.54,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.67,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.48,0.63,0.64,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.68,0.73,1	91.9%