NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	108		Excitement	9.4 [95]		MVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): +35.3%
Washington Bullets	105		Comeback	3.1 [374]		LVP	Ike Austin (MIA): -44.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0.35	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.35,0.35,0.35	0.08	0.29	0.02	17	64%	0.37	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.24,0.38,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.29	0.11	0.17	-0.00	25	70%	0.53	6	-0.24	14	93%	0.24
John Crotty	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	1	100%	0.08	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.09	0.09	-0.06	9	32%	0.08	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Keith Askins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ed Pinckney	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	43%	-0.01	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.44	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.44,-0.44,-0.44	-0.18	-0.26	-0.00	17	48%	-0.19	8	-0.26	8	75%	0.01

Washington Bullets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.21	0.21	0.02	0.23	0.04	21	53%	0.21	0	0.00	11	91%	0.06
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	56%	0.00	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Ashraf Amaya	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jaren Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gheorghe Muresan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	63%	0.11	6	-0.19	3	0%	-0.06
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	15	39%	-0.12	2	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Harvey Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.15	0.01	9	38%	-0.20	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.07
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.41,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.38,-0.33	-0.33	-0.01	-0.27	0.05	21	54%	-0.29	2	-0.04	10	60%	-0.19

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	34.3	15.8	26.0	1.8	39.6	1.8	21.4	167.5
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	1.6	17.8	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +72.8%

MIA +20.1%

WAS -22.3%

WAS -18.2%

WAS -2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.6	106.9	102.9	104.4
season	15.8	14.8		103.1	104.3
opponent	15.8	16.3		103.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	13.4	13.4	15.7	17.9	13.6	14.9
WAS	14.8	20.9	15.6	14.9	16.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	91	93	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.61	-1	4	-5	15.0	14.2	0.80	15.6	24.3	-8.70
Jamal Mashburn	97	97	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-2	7	15.1	10.5	4.60	16.0	24.2	-8.20
John Crotty	29	28	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.20	9	-6	15	12.3	16.0	-3.66	19.8	15.1	4.71
Ike Austin	84	85	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	15.2	13.6	1.60	16.1	18.1	-2.06
Tim Hardaway	93	93	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.39	1	2	-1	15.4	9.9	5.48	16.1	19.1	-2.97
Keith Askins	44	44	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	1	1	15.0	14.9	0.14	17.5	15.6	1.85
Mark Strickland	4	5	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-2	7	16.5	14.9	1.64	12.6	16.6	-4.00
Ed Pinckney	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	3	-3	13.6	15.2	-1.60	18.1	16.1	2.06
P.J. Brown	46	48	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.00	-9	12	-21	14.9	14.9	0.03	16.6	16.2	0.46

Washington Bullets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gheorghe Muresan	59	58	0.38	-0.88	1.27	-0.06	15	-18	33	16.0	17.0	-1.03	15.3	14.3	1.00
Tracy Murray	70	69	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.06	2	-5	7	17.8	13.3	4.50	14.6	15.6	-1.03
Ben Wallace	8	8	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	0.04	-4	1	-5	17.7	16.3	1.46	16.7	14.8	1.99
Ashraf Amaya	20	20	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.12	-10	7	-17	17.9	16.0	1.86	15.0	14.9	0.10
Calbert Cheaney	74	72	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.41	5	-8	13	15.4	19.0	-3.63	16.2	11.8	4.44
Jaren Jackson	26	27	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	3	-9	17.7	15.9	1.78	11.2	16.3	-5.10
Chris Whitney	30	28	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	8	-19	16.6	16.3	0.23	11.4	16.3	-4.93
Rod Strickland	81	81	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.35	-2	-1	-1	16.1	17.7	-1.59	16.0	10.5	5.45
Juwan Howard	92	91	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	6	-15	16.0	20.1	-4.10	15.2	12.6	2.58
Harvey Grant	50	51	-0.81	0.31	-1.11	-0.95	5	-8	13	16.1	16.7	-0.63	14.5	15.3	-0.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.39,0.31,0.24,0.16,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.45,0.36,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.22,0.34,0.41,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.09,0	91.4%
LAL 116, SAC 108	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.45,0.46,0.33,0.31,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.18,0.24,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.15,0.29,0.43,0.58,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.17,0.04,0	91.0%
CLE 112, ORL 107	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.21,0.23,0.16,0.54,0.62,0.46,0.57,0.08,0	90.9%