NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	100		Excitement	7.7 [276]		MVP	Mitch Richmond (SAC): +12.7%
Sacramento Kings	105		Comeback	2.0 [934]		LVP	Antonio McDyess (DEN): -17.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jerome Allen	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	12	70%	0.19	4	-0.13	6	67%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	18	47%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	42%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tom Hammonds	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Ellis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.09	0.05	-0.02	14	42%	0.08	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.03
Anthony Goldwire	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	0.04	7	44%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Kenny Smith	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	7	21%	-0.10	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.05	0.01	17	43%	-0.13	2	-0.05	10	50%	-0.12

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mitch Richmond	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	0.01	22	60%	0.20	2	-0.07	13	92%	0.09
Michael Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.08	-0.00	5	80%	0.15	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.05	-0.02	13	50%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.02
Kevin Gamble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.00	5	80%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Olden Polynice	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	11	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	13	35%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Grayer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	27.0	14.7	24.5	2.5	30.5	123.8
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +7.0%

SAC +17.6%

SAC +10.4%

SAC +9.4%

SAC +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAC	NBA	DEN	SAC	NBA
this game	15.2	14.5	15.6	103.1	108.2	104.4
season	15.2	15.4		102.3	102.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		106.0	108.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.1	18.2	12.8	16.1	15.2
SAC	15.9	12.3	13.9	15.9	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tom Hammonds	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-7	9	0.0	15.2	-15.20	3.0	14.6	-11.61
Jerome Allen	20	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	-2	-1	20.0	13.9	6.11	15.0	14.3	0.65
Ervin Johnson	70	67	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.16	2	-7	9	15.4	14.6	0.84	15.2	12.9	2.31
Anthony Goldwire	63	64	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-8	11	13.4	18.5	-5.04	14.2	15.0	-0.72
Antonio McDyess	80	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.26	0	-5	5	14.3	19.6	-5.33	14.8	12.9	1.86
Kenny Smith	35	34	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.18	-9	4	-13	18.2	13.5	4.66	14.5	14.5	0.05
Bryant Stith	77	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-3	1	13.9	20.0	-6.11	14.3	15.0	-0.65
LaPhonso Ellis	79	80	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	5	-15	15.5	13.9	1.60	14.0	17.0	-3.04
Dale Ellis	61	61	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.34	-8	3	-11	15.9	14.0	1.86	14.4	14.6	-0.18

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Olden Polynice	72	71	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.32	6	-1	7	14.5	14.6	-0.09	15.4	14.7	0.69
Kevin Gamble	28	26	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.11	9	-4	13	14.3	14.6	-0.24	19.2	13.7	5.51
Mitch Richmond	86	86	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.38	-2	7	-9	14.5	14.1	0.46	14.5	20.6	-6.14
Tyus Edney	45	44	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.05	8	-3	11	14.0	15.0	-1.01	16.7	13.9	2.76
Michael Smith	67	67	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.25	0	5	-5	15.4	12.5	2.84	14.6	16.5	-1.89
Corliss Williamson	21	23	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.05	6	-1	7	14.0	14.6	-0.69	17.7	14.4	3.22
Jeff Grayer	12	12	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	-3	11	12.9	14.7	-1.80	19.6	14.6	5.01
Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf	52	53	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.30	-3	8	-11	15.0	14.0	1.01	13.9	16.7	-2.76
Billy Owens	71	72	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.29	-7	12	-19	14.4	14.7	-0.32	13.6	19.9	-6.36
Brian Grant	31	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.03	0	5	-5	13.8	14.8	-0.96	14.9	15.3	-0.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.38,0.34,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.8,0.77,0.66,0.78,0.81,0.76,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.83,0.71,0.68,0.62,0.74,0.79,0.76,0.79,0.7,0.6,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.89,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 77, TOR 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.83,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.77,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.9,0.93,1,1,1	93.8%
WAS 77, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.6,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.53,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.64,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.74,0.83,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.67,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.93,1	93.2%
NJN 95, MIL 106	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.82,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.67,0.63,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.94,1,1	93.2%