NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Seattle SuperSonics	102		Excitement	7.4 [348]		MVP	Detlef Schrempf (SEA): +37.6%
Los Angeles Lakers	91		Comeback	3.3 [337]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): -24.1%

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Detlef Schrempf	0.38	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.38	0.23	0.15	0.00	18	85%	0.42	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.08
Gary Payton	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.13	-0.00	0.13	-0.00	17	54%	0.19	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.03	0.07	0.00	13	57%	0.14	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Wingate	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nate McMillan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jim McIlvaine	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	2	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hersey Hawkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.03	0.04	8	57%	-0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Terry Cummings	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	13	33%	-0.11	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.07,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.01	17	62%	0.26	3	-0.12	8	100%	0.07
Travis Knight	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	8	62%	0.06	0	0.00	5	60%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.01	9	74%	0.09	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Byron Scott	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	15	54%	0.05	2	-0.07	7	86%	0.03
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	5	17%	-0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.21,-0.22	-0.22	-0.09	-0.15	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.10	-0.03	19	38%	-0.11	5	-0.13	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.6	2.4	27.5	17.8	27.0	2.0	39.4	145.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +37.6%

LAL -8.2%

LAL -13.9%

SEA +31.8%

SEA +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SEA	LAL	NBA	SEA	LAL	NBA
this game	16.5	16.2	15.6	115.9	103.4	104.4
season	14.9	15.3		108.9	105.8
opponent	15.7	16.2		101.5	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SEA	15.4	17.5	19.0	14.7	16.5
LAL	15.9	16.8	16.2	16.0	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Detlef Schrempf	76	76	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.21	12	-1	13	15.4	23.9	-8.56	16.5	14.3	2.17
Nate McMillan	37	38	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.06	15	-4	19	17.8	15.6	2.22	15.5	16.8	-1.29
Gary Payton	84	84	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.22	8	3	5	16.1	24.7	-8.62	16.2	15.2	1.00
Hersey Hawkins	61	60	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.18	9	2	7	14.6	20.8	-6.14	15.9	16.9	-1.01
David Wingate	27	28	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.17	8	3	5	20.9	14.6	6.35	16.3	16.1	0.17
Larry Stewart	5	5	0.13	0.37	-0.25	-0.02	5	6	-1	12.4	16.8	-4.37	18.2	16.1	2.12
Terry Cummings	53	53	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	8	-5	17.6	14.8	2.81	16.4	15.9	0.53
Jim McIlvaine	28	28	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	11	-11	19.1	15.3	3.84	15.8	16.4	-0.56
Sam Perkins	69	68	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.07	-5	16	-21	15.9	18.7	-2.82	16.3	15.8	0.46

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derek Fisher	3	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	18.7	16.1	2.55	22.5	16.4	6.12
Sean Rooks	9	10	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.06	-5	-6	1	12.4	16.6	-4.19	24.7	15.5	9.23
Byron Scott	4	4	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	-6	1	21.7	15.9	5.81	11.2	16.8	-5.52
Jerome Kersey	36	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	-3	-5	17.5	15.3	2.15	18.7	15.1	3.54
Robert Horry	58	58	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-7	3	16.2	16.2	0.06	17.0	15.6	1.35
Travis Knight	67	68	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.23	1	-12	13	15.8	17.5	-1.73	15.7	19.1	-3.40
Eddie Jones	75	76	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.25	1	-12	13	16.2	16.4	-0.21	16.0	19.7	-3.74
Elden Campbell	79	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	-5	-1	16.6	12.4	4.19	15.5	24.7	-9.23
Nick Van Exel	85	86	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.18	-11	0	-11	16.1	18.7	-2.55	16.4	22.5	-6.12
Kobe Bryant	24	23	-0.62	0.12	-0.75	-0.10	-18	7	-25	14.6	16.8	-2.23	17.0	16.4	0.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.74,0.74,0.57,0.67,0.63,0.41,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 86, IND 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.34,0.45,0.52,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.71,0.58,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.21,0.22,0.08,0	91.1%
MEM 98, SAS 93	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.3,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.47,0.23,0.31,0.36,0.22,0.15,0	91.0%
CLE 93, NJN 91	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.55,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.37,0.25,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.53,0.26,0.19,0.17,0.38,0.28,0.18,0.05,0	90.8%