NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	108		Excitement	5.3 [731]		MVP	Latrell Sprewell (GSW): +18.1%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.2 [820]		LVP	Greg Anderson (SAS): -15.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Latrell Sprewell	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.10	0.06	-0.02	22	65%	0.25	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.03
Mark Price	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.04	-0.04	8	69%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.04	12	67%	0.05	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Felton Spencer	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Donald Royal	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ray Owes	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.02	0.04	6	64%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	20	42%	-0.05	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dominique Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	-0.00	-0.04	17	54%	0.07	0	0.00	7	71%	0.01
Cory Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.01	-0.05	11	65%	0.12	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Jamie Feick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	55%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	14	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	9	40%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Carl Herrera	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	11	36%	-0.06	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Greg Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.18	-0.02	-0.04	9	29%	-0.05	4	-0.10	6	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	28.4	15.4	24.5	2.3	26.5	122.7
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +33.3%

GSW +4.3%

GSW +1.2%

GSW +8.1%

GSW +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAS	NBA	GSW	SAS	NBA
this game	14.8	15.4	15.6	113.7	97.9	104.4
season	15.0	16.8		104.4	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.4		109.4	109.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	12.5	14.1	16.7	15.9	14.8
SAS	16.3	15.2	13.4	16.9	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Felton Spencer	67	67	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.00	24	-10	34	14.7	14.9	-0.14	16.0	14.1	1.90
Latrell Sprewell	91	93	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.06	19	-5	24	14.6	17.5	-2.86	15.5	12.3	3.16
Joe Smith	90	91	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.05	16	-2	18	14.8	13.4	1.43	15.3	16.4	-1.06
B.J. Armstrong	37	39	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.00	11	3	8	14.8	14.7	0.04	15.1	15.6	-0.58
Mark Price	38	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	10	-6	15.8	14.1	1.68	16.6	14.7	1.90
Chris Mullin	65	68	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.01	6	8	-2	14.8	14.8	-0.01	14.2	18.3	-4.08
Bimbo Coles	58	57	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	11	-8	14.7	14.8	-0.04	15.6	15.1	0.58
Andrew DeClercq	10	9	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	14	-14	11.4	15.2	-3.75	19.2	15.0	4.22
Ray Owes	3	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	18	-22	13.3	14.8	-1.47	14.5	15.4	-0.93
Donald Royal	16	16	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.10	-9	23	-32	15.2	14.7	0.52	13.2	15.8	-2.65

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamie Feick	21	19	0.02	-0.52	0.55	-0.00	1	-15	16	15.1	15.5	-0.32	15.1	14.7	0.37
Avery Johnson	74	73	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-15	16	15.0	16.7	-1.67	15.0	13.8	1.22
Dominique Wilkins	63	66	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.20	-1	-13	12	15.3	15.7	-0.41	14.7	14.9	-0.25
Vernon Maxwell	64	61	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-7	0	14.5	17.3	-2.83	15.5	13.4	2.14
Carl Herrera	57	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.10	-8	-6	-2	15.2	15.7	-0.50	15.0	14.4	0.58
Monty Williams	31	29	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	0.08	-14	0	-14	17.1	14.6	2.51	13.8	15.2	-1.44
Cory Alexander	45	46	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.07	-12	-2	-10	15.8	15.0	0.84	15.0	14.5	0.55
Vinny Del Negro	47	47	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.01	-14	0	-14	16.1	14.7	1.48	13.7	15.8	-2.13
Greg Anderson	78	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.02	-16	2	-18	15.5	15.1	0.42	14.6	15.5	-0.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.47,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.28,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.42,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.23,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.18,0.27,0.14,0.25,0.34,0.22,0.15,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, SAC 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.37,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.31,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.29,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.29,0.18,0.23,0.08,0.15,0.12,0.18,0.3,0.35,0.21,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%
WAS 101, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.14,0.25,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%
NJN 104, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	94.2%