NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	101		Excitement	4.7 [902]		MVP	Tomas Satoransky (WAS): +19.2%
Chicago Bulls	90		Comeback	1.2 [1081]		LVP	Lauri Markkanen (CHI): -12.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tomas Satoransky	0.19	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.23	0.00	0.04	12	104%	0.26	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.01	-0.03	6	71%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.01	11	56%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Tim Frazier	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.01	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	4	78%	0.05	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Mike Scott	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.01	11	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Chris McCullough	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	14	37%	0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Marcin Gortat	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.16	-0.00	-0.07	13	26%	-0.01	4	-0.08	1	100%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	10	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
David Nwaba	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	7	63%	0.06	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Paul Zipser	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.02	2	125%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	12	54%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jerian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	61%	0.02	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Robin Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	9	67%	0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Arcidiacono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Denzel Valentine	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	14	36%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Lauri Markkanen	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	19	31%	-0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.9	1.7	28.6	15.3	28.5	2.3	28.7	127.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +36.0%

WAS +2.3%

WAS +0.5%

WAS +4.5%

WAS +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	CHI	NBA	WAS	CHI	NBA
this game	17.0	13.0	14.7	105.2	93.8	107.5
season	14.8	14.2		108.2	103.2
opponent	15.0	14.7		110.2	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.1	15.0	18.6	18.6	17.0
CHI	12.7	12.7	13.0	14.0	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Oubre Jr.	76	78	0.63	-0.13	0.76	-0.05	23	-12	35	16.8	17.4	-0.62	13.3	11.7	1.62
Tomas Satoransky	74	74	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.14	15	-4	19	17.1	16.3	0.83	13.2	12.6	0.53
Marcin Gortat	70	70	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.01	17	-6	23	16.7	17.6	-0.90	12.9	13.4	-0.47
Bradley Beal	69	69	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.14	9	2	7	17.1	16.7	0.41	13.1	12.9	0.16
Otto Porter Jr.	63	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.12	6	5	1	16.6	17.7	-1.08	13.3	12.7	0.60
Jodie Meeks	35	36	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	9	-7	17.2	16.8	0.34	13.3	12.9	0.42
Mike Scott	49	49	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.24	-6	17	-23	17.5	16.4	1.04	12.1	14.0	-1.92
Jason Smith	15	15	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	13	-15	17.6	16.8	0.76	13.5	13.0	0.50
Tim Frazier	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.02	-1	12	-13	15.3	17.2	-1.86	14.4	12.8	1.57
Ian Mahinmi	11	11	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	15	-19	17.6	16.9	0.77	13.3	13.0	0.26
Chris McCullough	6	6	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.04	-4	15	-19	16.7	17.0	-0.31	8.2	13.4	-5.20

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Arcidiacono	18	19	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-13	15	13.2	13.0	0.15	17.3	16.9	0.38
Paul Zipser	26	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.07	2	-13	15	13.6	12.8	0.79	17.7	16.7	1.09
David Nwaba	56	55	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.26	7	-18	25	11.7	14.8	-3.10	17.3	16.5	0.86
Bobby Portis	45	47	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-15	19	12.9	13.2	-0.25	17.3	16.7	0.58
Denzel Valentine	65	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	3	-17	14.1	10.8	3.30	16.9	17.0	-0.11
Robin Lopez	58	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.04	-14	3	-17	12.5	13.9	-1.46	16.2	18.0	-1.83
Lauri Markkanen	66	64	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.09	-13	2	-15	13.6	11.8	1.81	17.3	16.3	0.92
Jerian Grant	74	73	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	3	-17	12.9	13.5	-0.65	16.8	17.6	-0.80
Justin Holiday	72	70	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.07	-15	4	-19	13.0	13.1	-0.06	16.6	17.8	-1.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.28,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.19,0.23,0.14,0.25,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 103, CHI 98	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0	95.1%
NJN 91, TOR 72	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.32,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.18,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.24,0.29,0.24,0.21,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.08,0.1,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.0%
POR 95, SAS 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.27,0.21,0.14,0.2,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.05,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%