NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	103		Excitement	4.5 [904]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +13.6%
Chicago Bulls	98		Comeback	1.1 [867]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -12.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.09	0.04	-0.01	17	61%	0.17	2	-0.04	7	100%	0.04
Josh Howard	0.11	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.06	0.00	-0.04	20	59%	0.14	3	-0.04	6	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.02	8	100%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0	0.05	0.00	0.05	14	60%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	7	56%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Devin Harris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.23	0.00	0.13	9	88%	0.17	3	-0.06	16	94%	0.03
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	39%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	0.05	16	46%	-0.06	1	-0.01	7	100%	0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	0.00	10	19%	-0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.01	0.02	16	31%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.02	0.04	13	38%	-0.09	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	1.7	27.2	14.6	26.1	2.5	41.4	138.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +67.5%

DAL +1.7%

CHI -16.6%

CHI -2.1%

CHI -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	CHI	NBA	DAL	CHI	NBA
this game	16.2	14.6	15.4	109.6	105.4	105.7
season	16.1	15.0		108.9	102.2
opponent	15.5	15.4		105.4	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	14.9	18.0	17.0	16.2
CHI	16.4	17.1	15.4	10.3	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	82	81	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.28	10	-5	15	15.9	18.5	-2.61	14.2	17.3	-3.17
Dirk Nowitzki	66	66	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	3	-1	16.5	15.6	0.83	15.0	13.6	1.38
Jerry Stackhouse	61	60	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.37	-2	7	-9	16.8	15.1	1.70	14.3	15.1	-0.76
Josh Howard	78	78	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	5	-5	16.5	14.7	1.85	14.0	17.4	-3.37
DeSagana Diop	44	42	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.16	4	1	3	17.7	14.9	2.78	15.0	14.2	0.87
Devin Harris	52	49	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.03	7	-2	9	15.4	17.3	-1.88	16.3	12.7	3.58
Brandon Bass	33	31	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.05	5	0	5	14.4	17.2	-2.82	13.4	15.2	-1.77
Erick Dampier	44	45	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.19	-1	6	-7	16.1	16.3	-0.25	14.8	14.3	0.49
Jose Juan Barea	9	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	5	-5	17.3	16.1	1.23	15.4	14.5	0.90
Trenton Hassell	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	5	-5	1.0	16.4	-15.39	4.0	14.8	-10.80

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adrian Griffin	9	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-4	3	14.3	14.6	-0.26	12.8	16.6	-3.81
Thabo Sefolosha	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-2	-1	17.3	14.0	3.31	16.4	16.2	0.26
Chris Duhon	51	53	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.35	7	-12	19	14.5	14.7	-0.22	16.5	15.8	0.70
Joakim Noah	27	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-2	-1	16.0	14.0	2.07	15.2	16.6	-1.39
Tyrus Thomas	15	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.07	-8	3	-11	16.5	14.2	2.26	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Andres Nocioni	59	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.39	6	-11	17	13.6	16.3	-2.76	16.7	15.4	1.27
Luol Deng	61	62	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.24	0	-5	5	14.6	14.5	0.15	18.2	12.3	5.93
Kirk Hinrich	64	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	13.7	16.6	-2.88	16.2	16.3	-0.11
Ben Gordon	70	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.09	-14	9	-23	14.7	14.2	0.53	15.1	19.4	-4.38
Ben Wallace	93	94	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.35	-5	0	-5	14.6	0.0	14.57	16.2	0.0	16.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.34,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 109, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.7%
TOR 125, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.2,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
GSW 133, ORL 112	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.5%