NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	90		Excitement	4.2 [931]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (LAL): +12.7%
Los Angeles Lakers	106		Comeback	1.2 [251]		LVP	Dickey Simpkins (CHI): -6.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ron Harper	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.02	6	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.03	10	48%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jud Buechler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Parish	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	6	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Michael Jordan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.03	24	50%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Scottie Pippen	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.06	16	61%	0.03	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.00
Bill Wennington	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	3	12%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Dickey Simpkins	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.02	-0.01	20	60%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	-0.00	-0.00	10	68%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.03	-0.04	7	36%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.03	-0.07	27	52%	0.12	5	-0.10	11	73%	0.01
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	6	50%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Kleine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Travis Knight	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	19	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	25.9	17.0	25.0	2.4	26.6	124.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +19.7%

LAL +4.0%

LAL +17.4%

LAL +8.5%

LAL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	LAL	NBA	CHI	LAL	NBA
this game	15.2	16.2	15.6	98.9	115.2	104.4
season	15.5	15.3		110.5	105.8
opponent	15.7	16.1		101.5	99.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	14.4	15.1	14.5	17.2	15.2
LAL	16.3	14.3	16.1	18.8	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Longley	28	29	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.07	3	-19	22	16.0	14.9	1.11	18.1	15.4	2.72
Robert Parish	8	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.03	-2	-14	12	13.6	15.4	-1.76	11.0	16.7	-5.74
Jud Buechler	22	20	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	-13	10	17.1	14.6	2.51	17.6	15.9	1.74
Toni Kukoc	61	62	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	-13	10	15.5	14.7	0.74	16.6	15.5	1.05
Bill Wennington	21	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	-12	8	12.2	16.1	-3.95	16.4	16.2	0.25
Steve Kerr	40	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.07	-4	-12	8	15.1	15.3	-0.23	15.6	16.8	-1.23
Randy Brown	27	26	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.03	-8	-8	0	17.0	14.5	2.46	15.2	16.7	-1.46
Dickey Simpkins	26	27	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	-8	0	15.6	15.1	0.54	16.5	16.1	0.40
Ron Harper	38	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	-5	-6	14.4	15.8	-1.48	18.1	15.1	2.98
Jason Caffey	39	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	-4	-8	15.3	15.2	0.13	14.4	17.7	-3.29
Michael Jordan	73	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	-9	2	15.2	15.2	0.08	16.6	14.8	1.74
Scottie Pippen	72	73	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	0.07	-21	5	-26	14.9	16.5	-1.64	15.8	17.9	-2.09

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	87	86	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.02	16	0	16	16.8	7.0	9.77	15.5	10.4	5.11
Elden Campbell	88	87	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.03	15	1	14	16.6	8.2	8.35	15.4	11.7	3.64
Jerome Kersey	57	57	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.02	15	1	14	16.6	15.6	0.99	15.2	15.3	-0.05
Eddie Jones	68	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.10	6	10	-4	17.2	13.5	3.76	15.5	14.6	0.88
Kobe Bryant	27	26	0.24	0.26	-0.03	-0.06	10	6	4	14.4	17.0	-2.59	14.7	15.4	-0.70
Sean Rooks	18	18	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.06	10	6	4	13.8	16.8	-2.99	12.8	15.8	-2.99
Robert Horry	78	76	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.14	3	13	-10	16.1	17.1	-0.98	15.7	13.0	2.67
Joe Kleine	12	13	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.02	2	14	-12	13.4	16.7	-3.25	15.1	15.3	-0.18
Travis Knight	20	20	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.07	3	13	-10	17.1	16.0	1.16	15.0	15.3	-0.23
Derek Fisher	5	5	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	16	-16	7.0	16.8	-9.77	10.4	15.5	-5.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.45,0.49,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 86, LAC 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.83,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%
LAC 82, SAS 91	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
WAS 89, NOH 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.88,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.4%