NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Cleveland Cavaliers	76		Excitement	6.3 [524]		MVP	John Crotty (MIA): +24.8%
Miami Heat	80		Comeback	3.6 [481]		LVP	Bobby Phills (CLE): -20.7%

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vitaly Potapenko	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	16	44%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Ferry	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark West	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	12	67%	0.09	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mills	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donny Marshall	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	7	53%	-0.00	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Tyrone Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	7	41%	-0.07	2	-0.04	3	33%	-0.04
Bobby Phills	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.21,-0.21	-0.14	-0.11	-0.05	16	35%	-0.11	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Crotty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.11	0.14	-0.00	7	93%	0.28	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.01	9	65%	0.14	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Sasha Danilovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	62%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.04	-0.00	10	52%	0.04	2	-0.05	9	56%	-0.03
Keith Askins	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	12	50%	-0.08	1	-0.02	16	75%	0.01
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	6	31%	-0.07	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.0	26.3	15.4	25.4	2.5	33.4	129.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +34.4%

MIA +17.5%

CLE -5.1%

CLE -0.6%

MIA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CLE	MIA	NBA	CLE	MIA	NBA
this game	18.2	16.3	15.6	90.5	96.4	104.4
season	17.8	15.8		102.1	103.1
opponent	16.3	16.1		98.3	100.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CLE	16.0	18.1	19.0	20.1	18.2
MIA	14.0	18.9	17.0	15.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donny Marshall	25	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-8	12	20.2	17.3	2.86	17.6	15.7	1.88
Mark West	17	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.11	-5	1	-6	20.4	17.6	2.71	17.6	15.9	1.71
Bob Sura	43	43	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.20	2	-6	8	16.5	20.0	-3.44	15.9	16.7	-0.74
Danny Ferry	36	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.30	2	-6	8	19.1	17.5	1.61	16.0	16.5	-0.56
Vitaly Potapenko	53	53	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.33	1	-5	6	17.3	19.8	-2.51	16.0	16.7	-0.70
Terrell Brandon	60	60	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.13	-8	4	-12	18.1	18.5	-0.43	15.6	18.0	-2.43
Tyrone Hill	62	60	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.24	-6	2	-8	17.9	19.1	-1.28	16.3	16.2	0.10
Chris Mills	59	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.25	-8	4	-12	17.3	20.2	-2.86	15.7	17.6	-1.88
Bobby Phills	65	63	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.44	-2	-2	0	19.4	14.0	5.42	17.2	13.5	3.67

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	64	67	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.34	15	-11	26	16.1	16.9	-0.79	18.2	18.2	-0.06
Ike Austin	36	38	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.31	9	-5	14	16.7	16.0	0.76	17.8	18.5	-0.73
John Crotty	42	42	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	0	4	16.8	15.8	1.05	18.9	17.5	1.43
Tim Hardaway	65	65	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.37	6	-2	8	15.6	18.8	-3.18	18.3	17.7	0.59
Alonzo Mourning	61	62	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	5	-6	16.9	14.5	2.43	18.9	16.3	2.54
P.J. Brown	66	65	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.09	1	3	-2	16.2	16.8	-0.60	18.5	17.3	1.20
Sasha Danilovic	50	51	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	-0.01	-4	8	-12	16.1	16.5	-0.43	17.0	20.1	-3.13
Keith Askins	31	30	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.06	-10	14	-24	16.2	16.4	-0.20	17.6	18.5	-0.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.72,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.5,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.23,0.34,0.38,0.53,0.74,0.65,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, LAL 101	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.52,0.64,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.53,0.79,0.65,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.91,1,1	93.8%
OKC 85, SAS 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.66,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.69,0.63,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.39,0.35,0.25,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.3,0.3,0.42,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.99,1,1	92.3%
TOR 99, GSW 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.44,0.33,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.45,0.52,0.4,0.52,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.74,0.81,0.91,1,1,1,1,1	92.3%