NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	76		Excitement	4.6 [865]		MVP	Johnny Newman (MIL): +14.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	94		Comeback	1.0 [1048]		LVP	Avery Johnson (SAS): -13.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carl Herrera	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.06	-0.02	15	65%	0.19	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Will Perdue	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	6	69%	0.05	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Jason Sasser	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Greg Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.12	0.01	-0.06	12	28%	-0.03	2	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Sean Elliott	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	13	39%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Cory Alexander	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	10	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Dominique Wilkins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	8	50%	-0.04	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Avery Johnson	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.02	0.01	4	25%	-0.05	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.04	-0.00	9	82%	0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.02	0.01	9	83%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.03	-0.02	8	59%	0.04	2	-0.01	6	83%	0.00
Joe Wolf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Lang	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	19	47%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
David Wood	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	10	54%	0.04	3	-0.07	8	87%	0.02
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.5	24.3	16.5	27.3	1.8	25.1	123.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +41.4%

MIL +2.7%

SAS -9.9%

MIL +16.6%

SAS -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	MIL	NBA	SAS	MIL	NBA
this game	17.3	15.3	15.6	87.4	104.4	104.4
season	16.8	16.0		100.8	103.9
opponent	15.5	15.4		106.0	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	16.6	17.8	18.1	16.5	17.3
MIL	15.4	13.5	17.0	15.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Will Perdue	44	46	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.09	5	-23	28	17.3	17.2	0.09	17.4	13.1	4.28
Jason Sasser	4	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-15	12	12.7	17.5	-4.72	13.2	15.4	-2.17
Cory Alexander	14	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.11	-8	-10	2	18.5	17.0	1.49	12.6	15.8	-3.17
Vernon Maxwell	43	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-16	14	17.5	17.0	0.56	16.7	14.0	2.66
Dominique Wilkins	30	31	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.09	-10	-8	-2	17.5	17.1	0.38	13.8	16.1	-2.36
Avery Johnson	63	66	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-10	2	16.7	18.6	-1.89	15.9	13.8	2.09
Monty Williams	31	31	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.11	-13	-5	-8	15.9	18.0	-2.15	13.3	16.4	-3.15
Sean Elliott	57	60	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-11	4	17.8	16.3	1.51	16.1	13.7	2.43
Carl Herrera	68	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-6	-6	16.9	18.7	-1.83	15.9	13.0	2.94
Vinny Del Negro	54	56	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.12	-18	0	-18	17.3	17.2	0.16	14.3	17.1	-2.79
Greg Anderson	27	27	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.03	-14	-4	-10	19.1	16.4	2.64	12.8	16.4	-3.63

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Newman	55	53	0.69	-0.19	0.87	-0.08	26	-8	34	13.7	17.9	-4.29	17.3	17.2	0.08
Elliot Perry	50	49	0.68	-0.18	0.87	-0.11	27	-9	36	13.5	17.6	-4.14	18.0	16.3	1.62
Armen Gilliam	59	57	0.58	-0.08	0.67	-0.00	20	-2	22	14.4	17.1	-2.66	17.6	16.5	1.15
Glenn Robinson	74	74	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.09	19	-1	20	15.4	15.0	0.39	17.8	14.2	3.64
Joe Wolf	15	12	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	10	-2	12.9	15.8	-2.87	18.3	17.1	1.25
Ray Allen	74	71	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.00	5	13	-8	16.1	11.5	4.65	16.2	22.1	-5.89
David Wood	16	15	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.05	5	13	-8	15.3	15.3	-0.01	16.6	17.4	-0.79
Chucky Brown	36	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	21	-24	16.1	14.8	1.36	17.6	17.0	0.53
Sherman Douglas	40	38	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.08	-9	27	-36	17.6	13.5	4.14	16.3	18.0	-1.62
Andrew Lang	31	31	-0.21	0.71	-0.93	0.02	-8	26	-34	18.1	13.9	4.23	17.2	17.3	-0.09

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.63,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.84,0.76,0.84,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.62,0.56,0.67,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 75, DET 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.77,0.66,0.63,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.5%
ORL 95, MIA 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.84,0.79,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.82,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.4%
MEM 93, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.65,0.69,0.59,0.6,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.82,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.1%