NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	6.8 [450]		MVP	Charles Oakley (NYK): +16.0%
New York Knicks	95		Comeback	2.4 [595]		LVP	Tim Hardaway (MIA): -28.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Askins	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.05	-0.00	5	100%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Danilovic	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.04	-0.02	10	60%	0.14	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
John Crotty	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	12	58%	0.02	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	17	48%	-0.04	2	-0.06	12	67%	-0.01
Ike Austin	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	11	50%	-0.03	4	-0.10	6	67%	-0.03
Tim Hardaway	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.28	-0.15	-0.12	0.01	17	31%	-0.18	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charles Oakley	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.06	-0.02	11	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Charlie Ward	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	0.00	6	77%	0.14	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Larry Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.01	11	61%	0.11	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Herb Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	19	52%	0.05	3	-0.07	8	75%	-0.00
John Starks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	7	44%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Chris Childs	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	8	44%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.02	14	52%	0.03	4	-0.13	5	60%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.5	32.4	17.4	27.6	2.7	40.3	146.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +29.3%

NYK +12.0%

NYK +3.5%

NYK +5.0%

NYK +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	NYK	NBA	MIA	NYK	NBA
this game	15.3	15.8	15.6	95.7	103.3	104.4
season	15.8	15.1		103.1	102.0
opponent	16.1	16.3		98.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	14.6	15.0	16.2	15.3
NYK	15.1	17.5	17.0	13.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Voshon Lenard	50	51	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.08	0	-6	6	13.9	17.0	-3.04	16.9	14.4	2.49
Alonzo Mourning	60	62	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.41	12	-18	30	14.4	17.1	-2.66	16.1	15.2	0.93
Keith Askins	64	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.05	-8	2	-10	14.6	17.0	-2.36	14.9	17.7	-2.88
John Crotty	18	18	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.14	-7	1	-8	19.8	14.3	5.50	16.9	15.5	1.36
Ike Austin	45	42	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.06	-10	4	-14	16.8	14.0	2.82	16.4	15.3	1.12
Tim Hardaway	86	84	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-1	-4	14.9	20.7	-5.81	15.4	20.0	-4.61
P.J. Brown	87	88	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	-1	-4	15.8	9.0	6.78	16.1	10.0	6.06
Sasha Danilovic	55	53	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	1	-8	15.9	14.6	1.25	14.8	17.1	-2.32

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Ewing	75	77	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-6	18	16.0	14.8	1.19	15.7	13.7	2.00
Chris Childs	79	81	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.28	11	-5	16	15.1	19.8	-4.63	15.2	16.4	-1.23
Larry Johnson	76	76	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	5	-4	15.7	16.3	-0.63	15.0	16.9	-1.95
Charlie Ward	41	42	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.19	5	1	4	15.9	15.7	0.11	15.7	15.0	0.72
Allan Houston	64	65	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.26	1	5	-4	15.3	16.9	-1.58	14.4	17.5	-3.08
Charles Oakley	66	68	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.15	1	5	-4	15.9	15.5	0.36	15.4	15.3	0.03
John Wallace	8	7	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	5	-4	20.0	15.4	4.61	20.7	14.9	5.81
Herb Williams	11	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	13.1	16.2	-3.07	14.5	15.5	-1.01
John Starks	40	38	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	8	-10	17.3	14.6	2.71	16.1	14.8	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.59,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 119, MIA 125	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.73,0.64,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.27,0.24,0.26,0.4,0.5,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.69,0.81,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,1	93.7%
SAC 83, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.3,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.34,0.53,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.94,0.99,1,1	93.3%
MIN 86, MEM 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.41,0.32,0.44,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.8,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.95,1	92.9%